The New Mainframe

America: The Not-So-Grim Truth

2011-04-10T19:18:00.003+09:00

A relative e-mailed me a link to this blog post by Lance Freeman: America: The Grim Truth.

I take issue with several of the author's assertions. As examples, many developed countries don't have single-payer healthcare systems, and, while a lot of tax dollars go to the Pentagon, it's not 70% of them. The factual mistakes make it harder to take the author seriously. Also, people simply have different preferences. If you love musical theater, or skiing, or recreational aviation, or somebody of the same gender, you aren't going to choose, say, Singapore if you have a choice. Different countries have different attributes. The United States isn't everybody's favorite, but nor is Switzerland.

That said, I agree with the author in one narrow respect: the United States (and its government) are generally headed in the wrong direction. In the U.S. there's growing inequality, decreasing financial security, and increasing threats to civil liberties. Those disturbing trends tend to make the United States relatively less attractive as a place to live, work, and vacation, if you have other choices and other things being equal.

I'm an optimist, and I wouldn't bet against the United States yet. The world's oldest democracy has shown an amazing ability to correct its course.

R.I.P. Nokia

2011-02-13T14:44:00.003+09:00

My first mobile phone more than 15 years ago was a Nokia. So was my second. And I've had some other Nokias along the way. I preferred Nokias. Most recently I had a Nokia E55, but it couldn't handle Japanese. So I switched to an iPhone 4 which could.

Nokia has now announced a new partnership with Microsoft. Nokia's new smartphones will run Windows Phone. Since the entire mobile phone market is moving to smartphones — today's smartphones are tomorrow's dumbphones — that really means Nokia is betting the company on Windows Phone. Unfortunately Nokia won't have any Windows Phone products available until the end of this year, and also unfortunately Windows Phone has completely failed to ignite any interest in the market. Google's Android, RIM's Blackberry, Apple's iPhone, and even HP/Palm's webOS and Samsung's Bada platforms are all doing better than Windows Phone.

Nokia's stock took a big hit immediately after the announcement, and the stock market is correct. It's hard to see how the affiliation with Microsoft will rescue Nokia. What has to be scary for Nokia is that Microsoft has been trying to crack the mobile software market for more than a decade, and Microsoft has literally been stuck in reverse. Microsoft's earlier efforts had higher marketshares than today's Windows Phone.

The trends are even more ominous for Nokia. According to IDC, and looking at the entire mobile phone handset market (including smartphones), Nokia's unit share fell from 37.2% in 4Q2009 to 30.8% in 4Q2010. More importantly, Nokia's revenue and profit shares fell even faster. Apple, with only about 4% unit share, collects about half the industry's profits. ZTE (who?), a Chinese manufacturer, came out of nowhere, primarily at Nokia's expense, and shipped 4.2% of all handsets in 4Q2010.

Another problem Nokia has is that its developer community is, understandably, incensed. Nokia is abandoning its own Qt, a cross-platform application environment which is widely popular with developers. Now developers who might want to create applications for Nokia's new handsets will have to learn a completely new development environment for Windows Phone, and the applications they've already created won't be portable. If developers have to re-learn and re-program their applications, why wouldn't they just move to Apple's iOS and/or Google's Android? It appears that's exactly what they are doing.

Nokia had to do something to change course. But if this partnership is Nokia's best remaining hope, Nokia is in big trouble.

Japanese on a Mobile Phone?

2010-10-30T15:53:00.002+09:00

Did you know that the vast majority of mobile phones sold in the world cannot even display Japanese characters, never mind allow Japanese text input? It's shocking, really, that devices built to foster communication cannot cope with most Asian languages without some serious hacking at best. You cannot even read Japanese or Korean text messages! This serious shortcoming applies to Blackberries, Symbian devices (Nokias), Android, and even the latest Windows Phone devices.

There's one notable exception: the iPhone. The iPhone has fantastic Asian language support, out of the box. Bravo, Apple.

Back to the Mac

2010-10-16T11:33:00.001+09:00

If the rumor sites are to be believed, Apple is going to introduce a new MacBook Air next week. I was quite interested in the first MacBook Air, but Apple compromised that system in ways I didn't like. There isn't enough hard disk space (or equivalent) available, the single USB port is too limiting, and the 2GB RAM limit is also a big problem. But it's thin. So what?

I'm still a good candidate for a lighter, easier to carry Mac. But I don't want to see too many compromises. Here's what I'd like to see in this baby Mac:

1. At least 200GB of hard disk space (or equivalent);
2. At least 2GB of RAM standard, expandable to at least 6GB;
3. A pair of USB ports, one of which is USB 3.0;
4. Mini DisplayPort;
5. 12.1 inch screen preferred;
6. A lock slot (to secure the machine to a desk);
7. Under 3 pounds.

Almost goes without saying: Bluetooth, 802.11n wireless, iSight, and fixing the headphone jack so that there's an iPhone-style microphone-in channel in the same connector. Nice to have: a memory card slot and a built-in ethernet port. (Road warriors still use ethernet.) Maybe Apple can do something funky-but-smart like put the ethernet port on the power brick. I'd also like to see Apple add a little functionality to the Air's bootstrap code to allow installing Mac OS X from Apple's cloud in addition to installation from a local shared network drive.

Apple could use SSD, but it's still expensive. How about the new 7mm high 2.5 inch hard disks from Hitachi and/or Seagate? Those are available up to 320GB in size, and they would allow Apple to keep the costs down and the machine profile thin.

UPDATE: So how did Apple do? Not well enough, so I'm not going to be buying one of the new MacBook Air machines:

1. A 256GB flash drive is an option only on the 13.3 inch model, and it's expensive. The 11.6 inch model tops out at 128GB.
2. Memory is only expandable to 4GB, and only at the factory.
3. No USB 3.0 yet.
4. Yes.
5. Apple bracketed the 12.1 inch screen size with 13.3 and 11.6 inch screen models.
6. Still no lock slot.
7. Yes, under 3 pounds.

The "almost goes without saying" parts are all there. The 13.3 inch model got a memory card slot, but neither model got a built-in ethernet port (or ethernet on the power brick). Both models come with a flash card containing Mac OS X for recovery.

Then there's price. To buy a MacBook Air with the attributes I want (if I could tolerate 4GB RAM maximum) would be $1699 list price (and another $29 for the ethernet dongle cable). That's quite steep. Too steep.

Got the iPhone 4, and Labor Mobility

2010-07-31T08:57:00.002+09:00

I got a 16GB iPhone 4 yesterday from M1 in Singapore. Although economically I'd be better off selling it on eBay, I'm keeping it. There's undoubtedly some attenuation and detuning when touching an iPhone 4, and it's way too fragile and demands a case anyway, but otherwise Apple did well.

Changing the subject, normally in a recession (especially a deep one) many people in the labor force relocate to areas with better job opportunities. U.S. workers may not necessarily pack up and move to, say, Singapore, but enough of them move to help the labor market adjust. That isn't happening in the current Great Recession, and the lack of labor force mobility is a major concern because it means the economic downturn will be more prolonged and more harsh than otherwise. The apparent reasons why people are not moving are myriad and probably include recent trends toward home "ownership" rather than renting (a trend I never understood), record numbers of home buyers who are "underwater" (owe more to the banks than their homes are now worth), and the fact that there are no particularly "hot" employment areas in the U.S. right now. (There are only "less cold" ones.)

Buying a Defective Product

2010-07-04T19:10:00.006+09:00

The iPhone 4 hasn't quite arrived in Singapore yet, although all three of the local mobile carriers are requesting e-mail addresses from people who might be interested in buying one. Unfortunately the iPhone 4 has some problems with its antenna design. AnandTech has some terrific original research documenting the problem, a problem which Apple's software update will not fix.

But I might still buy one.

iPhone 4: Decisions, Decisions

2010-06-16T02:48:00.002+09:00

As I think I mentioned before, I signed up for a no-contract basic mobile phone plan when I moved to Singapore in early April. My intention was to see what promotions and new phones would be available before signing a contract.

Good thinking. Now here comes the iPhone 4, although it'll be an extra 30 days or so before Singapore gets Apple's latest magical device. I've run the numbers many different ways, using reasonable estimates, and basically I'm a fool if I don't sign a mobile phone contract and take delivery of a new iPhone from one of Singapore's carriers. But I may be a fool (economically speaking) to keep the iPhone. Essentially, selling a new iPhone 4 (through eBay, for example) would net funds sufficient to pay off the entire minimum spending flow for the entire two-year service contract, by my calculation. Or at least come rather close. In other words, right now I'm paying SGD 15 per month for basic service, which is quite a bargain. But that's SGD 270 over the next 18 months. Instead, I could be paying approximately SGD 0 (net) per month for better service for 24 months, as long as I don't keep the iPhone 4. Wacky, isn't it?

So that first decision would seem easy: sign a contract. But do I then keep the iPhone? Or do I stick with a more basic phone, something like a Nokia 2730 for example? Or split the difference and go with something like the Motorola Milestone XT720, an Android-powered smartphone?

U.K.'s "First Past the Post" to Perish?

2010-05-11T00:57:00.002+09:00

I've always been fascinated with parliamentary elections in the United Kingdom, for a variety of reasons. This most recent election has been especially interesting. The U.K. elects Members of Parliament (MPs) from about 650 geographic constituencies (districts). In each district the candidate with the most votes wins and goes to Westminster. This system is known as "first past the post," and it's a common democratic formula.

However, the U.K. has three major parties that are relatively evenly balanced in their share of the national popular vote, and there are also several secondary parties which together hold about 28 seats. In that sort of environment FPTP has some fairly significant disadvantages. In particular, the Liberal Democrats, the third of the three major parties, has agitated for electoral reform for many years. Last week the LibDems increased their vote share by about 1% but they actually lost seats in Parliament. FPTP sometimes yields weird results like that.

Fortunately the U.K. has an excellent alternative voting system to put to voter referendum. In October, 1998, an independent commission chaired by Lord Jenkins issued a report favoring the "Alternative Vote Plus" system. AV+ is a hybrid voting system consisting of two groups of MPs to form the House of Commons. The first group, about 80 to 85 percent of MPs, is elected from individual constituencies (which are slightly larger than today's) but through ranked voting (called "Alternative Vote," known as "Instant Run-Off Voting" in the U.S.) Instead of marking a single "X" on their ballot papers, voters rank all the candidates (or as many as they wish) in their order of preference: 1, 2, 3, etc. When the votes are tabulated, all the ones are counted and assigned to each candidate. If one candidate wins a majority of the votes cast, that candidate is elected. If not, the candidate with the least number of 1s is struck, and then that candidate's voters' second choices (2s) are distributed to the remaining candidates. If one candidate then has a majority of the vote, that candidate wins. Otherwise, the candidate with the least number of votes in the second round is struck, and the process repeats until there's a winner. This run-off/second choice process assures that the final winner commands majority support but also encourages voters to express their preferences most accurately, without so-called tactical voting. The Scottish and Welsh parliaments already use AV.

The second group of MPs, about 15 to 20 percent, is elected nationally from party lists. These are called "top-up" MPs, and they are designed to give some proportionality to parliamentary representation. To simplify a bit, let's assume the Tories get 36% of the vote, the LibDems 30%, and Labour 34%. There'd be a formula that then adds top-up MPs to bring the House of Commons into somewhat closer alignment with those national voting percentages (though not necessarily exact alignment). Voters would choose their favorite top-up MPs from the national party lists. Top-up MPs would be assigned starting with the highest vote getter on a particular party's list, then the second highest, and so on until the required number of top-up MPs from that party is chosen. The top-up MPs also help secondary parties have their voices heard in Westminster, provided they meet a reasonable minimum threshold.

The Tories hate the idea of voting reform because their party has been the primary beneficiary of FPTP. Or, said another way, they've traditionally been the "largest odd man out." Pretty much everybody else likes the idea, and AV+ is a particularly good formulation. Lord Jenkins did some great work. I very much hope in the current post-election inter-party negotiations to form a new government that the Liberal Democrats (in particular) insist on putting AV+ to a binding public referendum by a date certain. It's long past time the U.K. reformed and modernized its electoral system to make it more democratic and more representative.

Moving into Singapore

2010-04-11T11:09:00.005+09:00

I am now relatively settled into my apartment in Singapore, and I'm starting to explore the surroundings. Singapore is not completely new to me since I've visited upwards of 10 times in the past, particularly in 2007. Here are a few random observations:

1. Getting an official Singapore government ID is critically important to conducting basic business. I ran around the city as fast as I could after getting my Employment Pass card to open various accounts.

2. Unlike the U.S. but similar to Japan, basic postpaid mobile telephone service is available and reasonably priced. I signed up for a SGD 15 (currently about USD 10.80) per month plan with SingTel which includes free unlimited incoming calls, 100 minutes per month (rounded to the second) of outgoing local calls, and 100 outbound text messages per month. I had my own telephone, so I only need to commit for 3 months. (I'll wait to see if Apple introduces a new iPhone.) Strangely caller ID is an extra-cost option on this plan after the first 3 months.

3. My apartment building has free Internet service, but unlike the free service I had in Tokyo it's terrible. So I signed up for a 24-month contract for Internet service with StarHub. It's their SGD 19.36 (currently about USD 13.95) per month "MaxMobile Surflite" plan. You get a USB modem (Huawei E1550) which connects to StarHub's 3.5G mobile towers anywhere in Singapore, but the Surflite service is throttled to a nominal 2 Mbps downstream and 384 Kbps upstream with unlimited access. It's not the fastest Internet service in the world, but it's extremely mobile and seems reliable enough so far. And I got a SGD 50 shopping voucher as a promotion which more than offset the minor activation fee, so I can buy some more summer clothes. Then I went to Sim Lim Square (Singapore's answer to Tokyo's Akihabara electronics market), shopped around, and eventually bought a D-Link DIR-412 3G wireless router. (I was able to confirm its compatibility with the E1550 right from Sim Lim Square using my notebook computer and the E1550 itself.) It's a simple little box: you just plug in the USB modem and you get 802.11n/g/b wireless access. So I don't have to plug the USB modem directly into my computer, and my mobile phone and/or iPod touch can share the connection. The DIR-412 was SGD 80 (currently about USD 57.60). When I travel in Singapore, I just grab the USB modem from the top of the D-Link router, and I'm ready for Internet access anywhere on the island.

Update: As it turns out I live in an extremely densely populated part of Singapore, and I was getting more than acceptable 3G signal drop-outs. StarHub was most reasonable in letting me switch to a wired service. It's a higher monthly rate, but I also get basic cable TV and DVR service. I'm very impressed with StarHub's customer service. Thank you, StarHub.

4. Singapore is hot and humid year round, and the humidity encourages mold, mildew, and insects. One has to be very careful keeping these critters under control. The previous tenant made a mistake or two, like drying clothes on a rack in a closet. Fortunately the landlord seems pretty good about correcting these initial problems.

5. I mentioned previously that Citibank is terrible. However, my employer required me to have a Citibank account in Tokyo for their international funds transfer arrangement. Within Japan that made some sense: Citibank is decent enough operating like a domestic Japanese bank that happens to understand a little more English than usual. However, now that Blueman at Citibank Japan wants to transfer funds to Blueman at Citibank Singapore, one would think that would be a near-instantaneous operation. One would be wrong. It will take at least three weeks and involve exchanging paper with Citibank Japan, and it's the same business process as would be required for Blueman at Citibank Japan to transfer funds to Mr. X at Random Bank in Random Country. I should also mention that I am a "Citigold" customer in Japan, but that did not matter for at least two visits to Citibank Singapore. When I went to the Citigold counter, I was quickly escorted to the commoners' area because I had no intention of transferring SGD 200,000 (currently about USD 143,000) into Singapore. In other words, both Citigold status and having an account with Citibank in one country didn't mean a damn thing in another country. So it's quite fair to ask: what good is an alleged international bank (Citibank) if they cannot conduct the simplest of international transactions for a top-tier customer?

I should also add that having a big pile of yen deposited with Citibank Japan and Citigold status has not allowed me to open an ordinary credit card account in Singapore. No, Citibank Singapore wants copies of my employment contract, pay stubs, etc. (Never mind that you cannot even get a long-term Singapore P1 Employment Pass, which I showed them the day I got it, without a sponsoring employer of repute and a substantial minimum income level.) It's again the same process that any other credit card company in Singapore would follow for any random individual.

Why am I doing business with this bunch of clowns? Why does anybody? Is there any better international bank that wants my business? I get much better service from my small U.S.-based bank, and they certainly don't have any branches in Singapore.

6. My employer has fumbled the ball on relocation to a great extent. Most importantly, I have no bed. (I'm sleeping on a sofa.) I'm not happy about this. As I write this, over two months after leaving Japan — which is another problem all by itself — my bed is still sitting in a Tokyo warehouse. In its zeal to save money, my employer has only wasted both money and time.

7. I'm getting too comfortable with Singapore's hawker market food. It's tasty, plentiful, but not particularly healthy. Except for the fruit and vegetable juice stands: those are OK. I stick to a personal policy that I will only eat a maximum of one hawker stall meal per day. Can anyone recommend "healthy hawker" ideas or alternatives?

Update: I found a hawker stall near my home that sells a healthy alternative meal with lots of vegetables, fat-free sauce, and brown rice.

U.S. Congress Passes Health Insurance Reform

2010-03-23T02:12:00.002+09:00

Finally, 100 years after first being seriously proposed, the United States Congress has passed health insurance reforms which create a reasonably universal system. It does so in one of the most inefficient, complicated, and tepid ways possible, but the U.S. has lurched toward a more just society.

I have been fortunate to live in three different countries (soon to be four) over the course of my lifetime. The U.S. healthcare system is a disaster compared to the systems in these other countries, including Japan. In 2014, when most of the reforms kick in, the U.S. system will graduate to "so-so."

I am deeply disappointed that the U.S. Congress did not pass the so-called "public option." That is, most Americans under the age of 65 still will not have even the choice, at any price, of buying government-administered health insurance (such as Medicare) or healthcare (such as the Veterans Health Administration). I am also concerned because, without such a choice, the reforms could collapse. In particular, future Congresses (notably Republican) could tinker with subsidies and eligibility limits or worse. The reforms still need a lot of improvement.

However, there are still some relatively near-term and relatively realistic opportunities to improve these health insurance reforms. The most direct way is for Congress to pass Representative Alan Grayson's Medicare-for-all bill, HR 4789. It's a grand total of four pages, and it simply allows every American under 65 to buy into Medicare Part A at cost. Will the Democratic Party continue to be stupid about both politics and policy, or will they go into the November elections having passed this enormously popular significant improvement? I hope it's the latter.

Another way is if the Senate finally comes to its senses and amends the reconciliation bill to include a public option, preferably in the form of a Medicare expansion. (The Senate should also lift ERISA restrictions that prevent states from adopting single-payer plans should they choose.) Both changes would significantly reduce the deficit, so they are in order. Will Senator Bennet, facing a stiff primary challenge in Colorado, push to add the public option? I hope so.

Yet another way is, ironically, if Republican attorneys general succeed in scuttling the individual mandate in court. As law professor Erik Hall points out, their argument is a longshot at best. But if they do succeed, the quick fix is to mandate that individuals buy public health insurance (such as Medicare Part A) but allow a waiver if they already have qualified private insurance. So go on, Republican attorneys: fight that one as hard as you can.

I'm also disappointed that the U.S. continues to maintain a health insurance system connected to employment. That makes little sense. Working or not, everybody needs at least basic protection against the calamity of illness. And people who are not working cannot afford insurance premiums. (Will they instantly qualify for Medicaid when they lose their jobs, and without draining their accumulated assets? No, apparently not.) The degree of medical security offered to individuals with these reforms is limited.

But it's progress. More, please, and quickly.

Moving Day in Japan

2010-02-01T08:55:00.002+09:00

This week is going to be tough. After more than four years living and working in Tokyo, I am moving back to the U.S., at least for a little while.

My friends and colleagues are already being way too kind. (That happens a lot here.) I'm going to be crying all week. :-(

I'll probably have much more to write in the next few days.

Chase: The Dysfunctional Bank?

2010-01-26T04:04:00.003+09:00

Chase recently offered an attractive promotion for 100,000 British Airways miles when signing up for one of their credit cards, so I did. Whereupon Chase decided to knock down my credit limit on my existing Chase credit card, and they didn't try particularly hard to reach me to ask what I thought.

Fortunately I have excellent credit, so I was not thrilled, but perhaps I can understand why banks are a little skittish these days in not extending more credit, even to their best customers. However, I rang up Chase to ask them to cancel the previous card and to set a single, more reasonable credit limit on the new card. What a surprise: Chase can't (won't) do that. (The agent muttered something about how a new card cannot get the previous limit. Which makes no sense of course, since I'm still the same person who pays his bills.) I was also told that if I cancel my first credit card then that would reduce my credit score. I think I'll take that risk, Chase.

In contrast, I am very happy with my Charles Schwab Visa Card which is administered through FIA Card Services, formerly part of MBNA and now part of Bank of America. I think Chase is going to lose this customer.

First Christmas in Tokyo

2009-12-13T11:42:00.003+09:00

I'm approaching the end of my fourth year living in Tokyo. Time flies. But it looks like the first year I will spend Christmas in Japan instead of the U.S.

December 25th is just another ordinary work day in Japan, and I think I'll be going to the office just for the sheer comedy of it. However, I'll probably host a small Christmas party that evening.

It might be my last Christmas in Tokyo. More on that topic when I know more.

Betting on Premature Deaths

2009-09-07T13:22:00.003+09:00

Wall Street has figured out yet another way to speculate on a financial instrument, this time on life insurance:

After the mortgage business imploded last year, Wall Street investment banks began searching for another big idea to make money. They think they may have found one.
The bankers plan to buy “life settlements,” life insurance policies that ill and elderly people sell for cash — $400,000 for a $1 million policy, say, depending on the life expectancy of the insured person. Then they plan to “securitize” these policies, in Wall Street jargon, by packaging hundreds or thousands together into bonds. They will then resell those bonds to investors, like big pension funds, who will receive the payouts when people with the insurance die.
The earlier the policyholder dies, the bigger the return — though if people live longer than expected, investors could get poor returns or even lose money.

I have no problem with this idea on one condition: only life insurance policies covering Wall Street financiers would be eligible for such trading.

Ted Kennedy and Succession

2009-08-26T20:52:00.002+09:00

Senator Ted Kennedy has died. His death is a huge loss to American governance and public welfare. He will be sorely missed.

Shortly before his death, Senator Kennedy wrote a letter to the principals in Massachusetts state government, including the governor, urging them to pass a law permitting the governor to appoint a temporary successor who would serve until a special election. Kennedy proposed that the temporary senator could not stand in the special election.

The great senator's last wish is still a great idea. The Massachusetts legislature should act on it. However, I would propose one very slight modification which would apply to future untimely deaths: elected senators (and for that matter representatives) should have the power to name a temporary successor themselves. Only if they fail to name a temporary successor, or if the temporary successor cannot (or will not) serve, should the state's governor appoint the successor. After all, we voters elect our representatives, investing in them the responsibility for making important decisions on all types of legislation. So it makes sense that the senator or representative himself/herself should have the first opportunity to name a temporary successor. He/she is in the best position to select an individual who would carry on the same legacy, consistent with the wishes of the voters in the most recent election, until voters get another opportunity to express their views. The governor is a different office, and perhaps a member of a different party, with more distant democratic authority to fill such a vacancy.

So, both to honor Senator Kennedy's legacy and as a matter of good public policy, let's start with Massachusetts and get a temporary successor law passed right away. The law should permit each senator or representative to name their own temporary successor. If for some reason this particular temporary successor is not named or cannot serve, then the state's governor names the temporary successor. In either case the temporary successor cannot stand for election, and a special election is held within a reasonable period of time. (Within five months is a reasonable period of time.)

Touchscreen Automatic Sushi

2009-08-07T18:03:00.002+09:00

Recently I enjoyed dining at a sushi restaurant (すしや) in or near Funabashi (Tokyo area). It is an amazing place. Each table has a touchscreen showing the current menu items. If something is out of stock, then it automatically disappears from the screen. The screen keeps a running yen total, so you can spend exactly what your budget allows. You can also see which orders have already been filled and which the kitchen is still preparing.

The kitchen receives all the orders electronically, and then the staff prepare your sushi. When ready, they put your sushi on a special tray which carries an electronic tag matching your table number. (There's a supply of numbered tags near the kitchen's dispatching station.) The dispatcher places the tray on the conveyor belt, and the computerized conveyor belt automatically carries your sushi order to your table. There are well-timed paddles that push your orders onto your table. The only items that require waitress delivery, perhaps for legal or safety reasons, are the liquids, especially the alcoholic ones. (Non-sushi side dishes, desserts, and fruit enjoy conveyor delivery.) As with other sushi restaurants, self-service water and tea are available at your table. But unlike other kaiten (conveyor) sushi places, where the sushi ages on the line, this advanced conveyor sushi restaurant prepares everything to order. The quality is much better as a result.

Here are a couple links with more information on this uniquely Japanese sushi palace:

http://juventus.livedoor.biz/archives/51135407.html
http://www.yamato-f.com/yamadenmaru.html

It's the Card, Stupid

2009-08-06T15:28:00.003+09:00

Ezra Klein cites a Boston Globe editorial about health insurance coverage in Massachusetts, and he makes an interesting point that if coverage comes first, cost control will naturally follow.

To extend that thought, I sure hope Team Obama is ready to mail every American a new, standardized, universal health insurance card quickly, very soon after they can get health care legislation in place. It's an important way to demonstrate that every American is getting a tangible benefit. Yes, there will be a few nutjobs who publicly destroy their cards, but they'd only reinforce the point, finally, that all Americans should receive reasonable health coverage.

I fear the White House and reformers in Congress haven't started getting the cards ready.

Great Haircut Deal in Tokyo

2009-07-20T19:17:00.003+09:00

I stopped by "Hair Shop Japan" in Funabashi this morning. They offer full service for a mere 1900 yen. Full service means a haircut, shampoo (after the haircut, which is the way it should be), and full shave. Unfortunately they don't use the straight razor except around the ears and in back. The remainder of the shave is with a safety razor, and of course that's not nearly as good. However, I think for an extra charge they'll use the straight razor all around.

Recommended.

Pondering Suicide? Don't Block Traffic in China

2009-05-24T09:58:00.003+09:00

Speaking of China, the AP reports that Chen Fuchao perched himself on the edge of a bridge in southern China, contemplating suicide and bringing traffic to halt for about five hours. A passer-by, Lai Jiansheng, walked up to the man, shook his hand, then pushed him off the ledge, saluting after he fell.

Lai said he was fed up with Chen. "I pushed him off because jumpers like Chen are very selfish. Their action violates a lot of public interest. They do not really dare to kill themselves. Instead, they just want to raise the relevant government authorities' attention to their appeals."

Chen fell onto an air cushion positioned by police and survived, suffering spine and elbow injuries. Lai was arrested.

Back from China

2009-05-24T00:28:00.003+09:00

I just spent about 4 days in China, in Hangzhou specifically. It still amazes me how common China's national bird, the construction crane, is. And how many McMansions there are.

Heads I Win, Tails I Win

2009-03-29T09:33:00.002+09:00

Previously I wondered aloud why, for example, Ken Lewis, CEO of Bank of America, still has a job, amidst soaring unemployment. He ran his company into de facto bankruptcy, drove the stock price into a ditch, required massive infusions of taxpayer support, and overpaid for Merrill Lynch. If he were a plumber the house would be flooded, sewage would come out of the shower head, and there'd be no hot water. Yet he still has a job, and thousands of competent plumbers are collecting unemployment insurance.

Lewis is not just an isolated example. Why do most of AIG's corporate risk officers still have jobs? If they worked for an automobile manufacturer, they would have failed to notice that a metal knife blade affixed to the steering wheel and pointing at the driver might pose a safety hazard.

Then there's the case of Jake DeSantis, one of the 377 vastly overpaid geniuses at AIG's Financial Products group, the one that destroyed the company. He wrote a New York Times Op-Ed explaining why he still deserved a bonus. Matt Taibbi tears him a new orifice.

These cases are not isolated. They are common, even typical. Executive compensation has been totally decoupled from shareholder interests. And it's the taxpayers who own many of these companies now, or should if public officials were acting in taxpayer interests instead of grabbing money from public coffers and sending it to Wall Street, even without equity stakes.

We don't have a market economy. We have a kleptocracy, more akin to Putin's Russia or Marcos's Philippines. (I am in general agreement with Simon Johnson.) Obama is trying to get FDIC-like authority to take financial institutions into receivership if they are insolvent, and there's also a proposal that shareholders vote directly on executive compensation rather than leave such important matters to a board of directors. (Speaking of which, why, in corporate America, is a shareholder, who does not return his proxy, surrendering his vote to the current Chairman and Board, to vote as they please? If shareholders support current management, then they should have to vote as such. If they don't vote, they shouldn't count for any side.) Obama's budget proposal also helps make the tax code more progressive and close loopholes such as hedge fund compensation taxes. All these policies will help, but they won't be enough, and of course the kleptocracy is fighting them. After all, when you don't have the talent to make money the old fashioned way (by earning it), why not steal it?

AIG Monstrosity

2009-03-18T12:47:00.002+09:00

AIG is an absolute horror now, if it wasn't already. The whole situation is blowing up in the young Obama Administration's face. For example, I doubt the President can explain why several AIG employees received million-plus retention bonuses...after leaving the company.

So what now?

Congress will pass some type of legislation raising income taxes on financial industry employees working at zombie companies. Unfortunately that legislation won't cover non-U.S. nationals who worked at AIG's London office, and there are plenty of those. The President should also ask U.K. authorities to do the same. That's the short-term fix for this narrow issue.

The President should also fire both Timothy Geithner and Lawrence Summers. They're done. It's time for a new team already. Then bring in Bill Seidman and Paul Volcker, veterans from the last banking crisis. (They are change we can believe in.) And give them carte blanche to place financial institutions into full and proper receivership, not this half-assed AIG-style receivership-without-the-benefits. It's your mess now, President Obama, so man up and take control. Didn't you read any book about FDR?

As the AIG situation so wonderfully illustrates, there are a bunch of contracts that need to be broken, starting with multi-millionaire employment contracts that are still rewarding many employees who would otherwise be guilty of criminal fraud on any other planet. Instead we are living in this "New Democrat" ideological fantasy that socialism (massive and continuing subsidies to zombie companies) is really capitalism. It's exactly the opposite! Meanwhile, the Secretary of the Treasury is cutting backroom deals with his Wall Street buddies so they can avoid the fair consequences of their mismanagement. This all stinks, and it's long past time to put these institutions into Swedish-style receivership. Otherwise it looks like we're going to have a new scandal every week.

Do you really want a new financial scandal every week, President Obama? Do you really want to spend the rest of your presidency defending the actions of de facto criminal Wall Street managers? Shut this stupidity down, now, and start with AIG, before this crisis cripples your presidency.

Larry Summers Suggests Buying Stocks

2009-03-15T14:05:00.002+09:00

Lawrence Summers, Director of the U.S. National Economic Council, spoke at the Brookings Institution on March 13. In his remarks he pointed out that, after adjusting for inflation, the Dow Jones Industrial Average this past week dipped to the same level it was in 1966. "While there could be many ways to question this calculation, that the market would be at essentially the same real level as it was in 1966 when there were no PCs, no Internet, no flexible manufacturing, no software industry, and when our workforce was half and our net capital stock was a third of what it is today, may be regarded by some as the sale of the century."

I'm glad Professor Summers qualified this calculation. Economists generally believe that, at least in the long run and on average, the prices of financial assets (like stocks) depend on the net present value of expected future profits. (I'm oversimplifying, but only slightly.) The past is the past: PCs, the Internet, software, etc. are all reasons why investors in, say, the early 1970s could be bullish about future earnings growth and, thus, stocks. They are not reasons now.

So what events and innovations will generate future earnings growth in the U.S. economy? It's something I worry about practically every day at work, to make sure we're focused on real, sustainable growth. From our perspective that includes gaining marketshare, as long as it is profitable. Unfortunately too many actors in the U.S. economy focused on financial gimmicks to generate false bubble "growth," and we now better understand that true growth was limited.

Out of curiosity I looked at the composition of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1966. Here were the 30 listed companies at that time: Allied Chemical (now part of Honeywell), Aluminum Company of America (now Alcoa), American Can (now part of Rio Tinto Alcan), AT&T, American Tobacco (divided and now owned by other tobacco companies), Anaconda Copper (now only a Superfund environmental liability for BP), Bethlehem Steel (now part of Arcelor Mittal), Chrysler (now owned by Cerberus Capital Management), Du Pont, Eastman Kodak, GE, General Foods (now part of Kraft), General Motors, Goodyear, International Harvester (now Navistar), International Nickel (now Vale Inco), International Paper, Johns-Manville (now part of Berkshire Hathaway), Owens-Illinois Glass, Procter & Gamble, Sears Roebuck, Standard Oil of California (now Chevron), Standard Oil of New Jersey (now ExxonMobil), Swift & Company (now part of JBS S.A.), Texaco (now part of Chevron), Union Carbide (now part of Dow Chemical), United Aircraft (now United Technologies), U.S. Steel, Westinghouse Electric (now split up, with broadcasting as part of CBS), and Woolworth (now Foot Locker). Notice something interesting? There's not a single financial services company on the list. It really was an "industrial" average. With the exception of Sears and Woolworth (and possibly AT&T), every company on the list made something physical. In later years the Dow would add American Express (1982), J.P. Morgan (1991), Travelers (1997, which later became part of Citigroup), AIG (2004), and Bank of America (2008).

Why Are These CEOs Still Employed?

2009-02-27T17:15:00.005+09:00

Vikram Pandit, CEO, Citigroup.

Ken Lewis, CEO, Bank of America.

Japanese Depression?

2009-02-12T22:37:00.004+09:00

Economists are now forecasting that Japanese real GDP contracted by an astounding 12 percent in the 4th quarter of 2008, year to year. The government will report the GDP number on Monday.

UPDATE: It's bad. Very, very bad: -12.7% annual rate in Japan's 4Q2008. Nouriel Roubini tallies the global economic collapse: -3.8% for the U.S., -6% for the Eurozone, -8% for Germany, -16% for Singapore, and -20% for South Korea.

Japan's Economic Woes

2009-02-07T14:37:00.002+09:00

Like much of the rest of the world, Japan is experiencing serious economic problems. Toyota, NEC, Hitachi, Panasonic, Sony, Mizuho Financial Group, and Honda are among the firms reporting record losses and/or (usually and) laying off thousands of workers. Japan's export-driven economy is struggling against both weak demand (at home and abroad) and a particularly strong yen.

These economic challenges certainly make working in Japan even more interesting. Our customers have always looked to reduce costs, but now there seems to be some more serious thinking about how they can improve operational efficiencies. Previously "unthinkable" structural changes are now more likely. More assumptions are questioned and rethought.

Companies are appreciating at least one unique attribute of IBM mainframes: they typically become less expensive if your business declines. That's due to something called Variable Workload License Charge (VWLC). If your transaction and batch volumes decline, you pay a lower software charge, automatically. Nothing else in IT behaves that way, so the mainframe becomes even more valuable in this environment. For this reason and several others, in both bad times and good times it's a good time to have at least one IBM mainframe.

Praise for the MacBook

2009-02-02T20:58:00.003+09:00

After using Apple's "unibody" MacBook (what MacRumors.com calls "Revision F") for a little over a month, I'm ready to say it's a fine piece of engineering and one of the best machines I've ever owned.

It's not perfect. Apple chose a slightly mediocre LCD screen, but at least it's LED-backlit. It'd be real nice to have an ExpressCard/34 slot, which is missing. (That'd help cope with the lack of Firewire, wide area wireless, and memory card slot.) I cannot get LEAP wireless to work consistently, and I have to reboot to switch between wireless and wired ethernet for some reason, so I'm still trying to figure out Mac OS X's networking. Also, the MacBooks are a bit overpriced, especially the 2.4 GHz model. (I don't really understand why anybody would buy the 2.4 GHz model. The 2.0 GHz model is a much better value, particularly if you can shop around and get at least some small discounts and/or rebates.)

All that said, the aluminum MacBook seems to be a rugged and reliable machine. It runs cool to the touch (Apple chose some good CPUs), the touchpad works very well (once you get used to it), the weight is reasonable (4.5 lbs.), performance is good (including graphics performance), the keyboard is nice, battery life seems quite reasonable, and it "just works."

Infrastructure Now

2009-01-26T20:34:00.006+09:00

Rachel Maddow and Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Oregon) are exactly right.

The U.S. government really needs to put its foot down on the public capital investment gas pedal right now. And specifically that means repairing existing infrastructure, not building new roads and bridges which only promote more oil consumption. Rail is the area that needs the biggest investment, including especially real high-speed rail. Let's start with a transcontinental line from New York to Los Angeles via Chicago, Denver, and Las Vegas, also building out the Los Angeles to San Francisco line that California voters approved. And let's sketch out an initial national network map for high-speed rail, to start thinking about the second phase.

Municipal water and sewer systems need urgent investment, to eliminate leaks and improve sanitation. Superfund sites should get cleaned up more quickly and completely. Airports, particularly small airports, need help to repair decaying runways and upgrade safety systems. And there should also be an integrated national plan to preserve existing airports and build a few new ones in areas of clear geographic need. For example, Chicago needs a new urban reliever airport closer to downtown. Cities need sensibly targeted urban renewal funds, to expand green space and support high density, mass transit-friendly redevelopment. Pollution control is desperately needed, especially for coal-fired plants and industries. Utility grids need more investment, especially if they will need to support new electric vehicles. Public utilities need funds to build new nuclear plants and other non-greenhouse gas energy plants. (Yes, I said nuclear.) Wetlands preservation and restoration is vital to restoring ecosystems and protecting against flooding. And, with all of this (and more), why not throw a few dollars toward artists who can help make this infrastructure more beautiful?

The U.S. need jobs, both in the short term and in the long term. There's no better policy prescription than for the federal government to spend aggressively in these and similar areas. Let's hope sanity prevails in Washington. Otherwise, the recession will be deeper and longer than necessary.

UPDATE #1: Just to give you some idea of what should be possible with real high-speed rail, a pure, dedicated ~300 Km/h dual track line (with some intermediate station sidings, such as Cleveland, Des Moines, Omaha, etc.) should be able to provide New York to Chicago nonstop express service in 4 hours, Chicago to Denver in 5, Denver to Las Vegas in 3.5, and Las Vegas to Los Angeles in well under 90 minutes. (Those would be your express stops on the fastest through trains, adding Omaha when phase 2 gets built.) For those of you who say that coast-to-coast doesn't make sense, keep in mind that coast-to-coast is the most efficient because it provides the most possible city pairs addressing the needs of the maximum number of travelers. It's much like how Southwest Airlines runs its planes. Also, in many places the high-speed rail station should be co-located with major airports or at least co-located with direct mass transit connections to those airports.

UPDATE #2: A "phase 2" high speed rail line might trace the other diagonal across the country, from Miami to Seattle, probably via cities such as Orlando, Atlanta, Nashville, St. Louis, Omaha (for interchange with the first line), and Portland. (There aren't a whole lot of cities on the great circle between Omaha and Portland, though.) After that there would be obvious built-out options, such as from San Francisco to Portland and an extension from Seattle to Vancouver. But that core "X" pattern probably yields the highest value and the most national of networks as quickly as possible. It makes possible and reasonable trips like Seattle to Cleveland, Miami to Denver, Las Vegas to Atlanta, etc.

Citizenship

2009-01-25T19:39:00.003+09:00

Last month the Italian government recognized my mother as an Italian citizen. Which means, as an adult, I now have a year to file an Italian citizenship application of my own if I choose.

It's a fascinating story, and at some point I'll relate more details.

American Meat

2008-12-11T08:25:00.002+09:00

The "U.S. Meat Export Federation" has some heavy advertising positioned aboard Tokyo's subways trying to reassure Japanese consumers about the safety of U.S. meat products, particularly beef. Many Japanese have shunned U.S. beef, fearing Mad Cow contamination. Ubiquitous rice bowl chain Yoshinoya has bravely started serving U.S. beef in some of their menu items. There is at least one major advantage: it's cheaper.

You can visit www.americanmeat.jp to learn more (in Japanese).

The Japanese government insists on testing and certifying U.S. beef in comprehensive ways that U.S. consumers don't enjoy. In fact, the U.S. Department of Agriculture sued one beef producer, Creekstone Farms, to stop its testing of 100% of its beef for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Consumer advocates (and plenty of U.S. consumers) are outraged, of course, that USDA (i.e. the U.S. government) would interfere with a free enterprise that is trying to improve and promote higher product quality and safety.

Spread a Little Happiness

2008-11-11T20:17:00.002+09:00

Keith is spot on. This issue is simple and pure: do we want more of our fellow Americans to have just a little more chance at happiness? Yes, absolutely, yes.

Bringing Us Together

2008-11-08T14:57:00.001+09:00

Ezra Klein has some more wonderful photos from Election Night 2008.

Most Maddening Election Day Result

2008-11-07T23:38:00.003+09:00

As Andrew Sullivan astutely points out, California voters passed Proposition 2 which assures minimal humane treatment for in-state pigs, chickens, and other farm animals. (Animals slaughtered out-of-state arriving in California as meat are on their own.) At the same time, voters passed Proposition 8 to ban same-sex marriage.

In other words, it's OK for pigs to be a little happier, but we better not let gays and lesbians, our fellow humans, enjoy happiness.

I'm sorry, but I just do not understand this "thinking." While it's not everybody who voted for Proposition 8 — a lot of voters were simply misinformed — some people actually derive pleasure in seeing others denied happiness. How sad.

The good news is that, while gays and lesbians will have to wait a little longer, and some won't see the day, the day is coming when they won't be denied their right to the pursuit of happiness. The bigots are dying, basically, and younger people are progressively less discriminatory. On the very same day when California took one step back, the entire country took a giant leap forward and busted through another barrier of bigotry. I am forever optimistic that a similar day will come soon for gays and lesbians, too.

In the meantime, Connecticut, the state where I was born, heartily welcomes all gays and lesbians from anywhere in the country who want to tie the knot, whether they want to remain in the state as residents or not. But why not stay in Connecticut? It's a wonderful place to live, and you can vote Joe Lieberman out of office in 2012 if he doesn't have the good sense to retire. And why not move your business to Connecticut, or at least open a big office and hire lots of talented and energetic Connecticut workers, including workers who happen to be gay or lesbian?

Contraception is also now legal in Connecticut, so what's not to like? Connecticut welcomes you, no matter who you love.

Morning in America

2008-10-27T10:41:00.002+09:00

October 22, 2008, Chantilly, Virginia. (Joe Raedle, Getty Images.)

Only in America

2008-10-23T19:27:00.002+09:00

Politico's Ben Smith reports on a medical student's early voting experiences in Evansville, Indiana:

For me the most moving moment came when the family in front of me, comprising probably 4 generations of voters (including an 18 year old girl voting for her first time and a 90-something hunched-over grandmother), got their turn to vote. When the old woman left the voting booth she made it about halfway to the door before collapsing in a nearby chair, where she began weeping uncontrollably. When we rushed over to help we realized that she wasn't in trouble at all but she had not truly believed, until she left the booth, that she would ever live long enough to cast a vote for an African-American for president.

Only 12 more days.

Name Calling

2008-10-20T06:43:00.003+09:00

So the McCain-Palin campaign has now devolved into a rancid whirlwind of name calling: "terrorist," "socialist," "Muslim," etc. If you have even one neuron in the upper brain regions firing, there's no logic, and nothing is consistent. It's a cruder version of Hillary Clinton's late primary strategy, and it simply isn't working.

What I think many pundits have so far missed is how profoundly disruptive a GOP loss (much less a rout, which looks possible) will be to the party. Starting in 1968, the modern Republican Party has had one go-to-market strategy: the Southern strategy. The Southern strategy depends on non-thinking, ignorance, hate, and division. It's profoundly un-American, but it has been enormously successful for decades. The only exceptions have been conservative Southern Democrats (Carter and Clinton). This year is the strategy's grand finale.

You can already see signs of disbelief. There are going to be a fair number of hardcore cult members, the folks who still approve of President Bush's job performance, who might experience something resembling a political nervous breakdown. And as we approach the last days before the election, you already see signs of that breakdown. An African-American Democrat is poised to live at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. He will be their president, our president. And when you've been doing everything possible to avoid all facts and evidence for so long, it'll be a shock to some. Their world is changing, our world is changing. And it's wonderful.

Brownshirts and Hoods

2008-10-08T02:28:00.002+09:00

The McCain-Palin ticket continues its descent into the gutter.

Critique of the GOP Backbenchers' Plan

2008-10-01T19:44:00.002+09:00

CNBC reports on a new Republican plan aimed at addressing the U.S. credit crisis. In general terms I'm happy there's a competing plan for the simple reason that more plans mean more gridlock and less likelihood of passing the Paulson/Bush/Leadership plan, ceteris paribus. I prefer no action to that awful plan, and Harry Reid just managed to make that plan even worse. DeFazio's No BAILOUT Act is still my favorite choice. Surely Congress can at least agree to raise the FDIC deposit insurance limit to $250,000, which is the heart of that simple plan.

The new GOP plan has some silly and even dangerous elements, and many elements are simply expressions of dogma rather than practical steps to solve current challenges. For example, the GOP plan calls for allowing corporations to apply losses in 2007 through 2009 back 5 years, so they can claim a refund. Why reward companies who are losing money? If I managed a profitable business, I'd be livid! That particular element is eerily similar to bad Japanese policy, propping up money-losing companies which should fail. Another example: suspending the capital gains tax for two years. That would only exacerbate selling pressure on assets, and at exactly the wrong time. We should be indexing capital gains and tax them at equal rates to ordinary income, to encourage long-term investment and discourage speculation. Repealing the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act would have no effect on the Fed (which obviously ignores the Act already) but might heighten anxieties among workers who would suddenly feel even more concerned about losing their jobs. Such fears would depress consumer spending, again at exactly the wrong time. And do Republicans really want to go to the voters in November and say they championed abolishing full employment? Seriously?

Where are the public hearings, by the way? Shame on the House and Senate leadership (majority and minority) for not insisting on public hearings before even thinking about a $700B bailout. Fortunately everyone in the House and one third of the Senate is about to face the wrath of America's voters on November 4th. The whole rotten and corrupt cabal deserve every bit of it. Have you written your congressman and senators yet?

"No BAILOUT" Act: A Sensible Bill

2008-10-01T12:59:00.002+09:00

Representatives DeFazio, Edwards, and Kaptur have introduced the "No BAILOUT" Act as an alternative to the $700B Paulson/Bush Wall Street bailout plan which failed in the U.S. House. I am very happy with the No BAILOUT Act, especially the increase in FDIC insurance limits up to $250,000 which has essentially universal support and which would protect a lot more small businesses that are simply meeting payroll each month.

My only minor quibble with the bill is suspension of "mark to market" rules. Currently financial institutions must value their assets according to what they would fetch if sold now. Try to sell your house in the next 5 minutes. Would you get a lot less money than the house is worth? Of course you would. Most assets are, to some degree anyway, illiquid. But allow, say, 90 days to sell and that house price is much more reasonable.

The bill sponsors and I may be thinking of the same thing here, but there should be some reasonable valuation for these assets. And I think 90 days is about right. That is, assets should have a value equal to their liquidation value within the next 90 days. Said another way, "mark to market" should be "mark to the 90 day market." Now, establishing those values in non-functioning markets could still be difficult, but conceivably there could be a secondary market which helps establish these values. Also, there might be short-term "relief valves" that the SEC establishes. I think SEC should be allowed to declare "asset valuation freezes" if they observe that markets are not functioning. Such a freeze could be for 30 days, roughly similar to the short-term short selling suspension that the SEC declared recently. However, any such freezes should be as narrowly tailored as possible (by geographic area, market segment, corporate entity, etc.)

All that said, the No BAILOUT Act is an outstanding piece of legislation at this moment in time, and I urge both Democrats and Republicans to support it. If the Paulson plan, or anything remotely like it, comes back up for a vote, all Congressmen should kill it again.

As an aside, while I overwhelmingly support Barack Obama, shame on him for surrounding himself nearly exclusively with Wall Street executives and others who deserve ample blame for the current mess. As one example, Dr. Laura Tyson is an Obama advisor on the economy and financial markets who also sits on the Morgan Stanley Board of Directors. Conflict of interest? You bet, and it's outrageous, especially considering Obama's otherwise decent stance against lobbyist influence.

Wall Street Bailout Fails in Congress

2008-09-30T09:30:00.003+09:00

The House of Representatives voted down the $700B Wall Street bailout package earlier today.

Good! Congressmen felt the wrath of the American voters they are about to face on November 4th, and that's a very healthy impulse. This bill was a rotten turkey, opposed by nearly all professional economists, with some saying it could do more harm than good.

The Fed, Treasury, and FDIC have ample tools at their disposal. (Paulson begrudgingly conceded as much.) It's ridiculous for political leaders to try to ram this turkey through without a fully transparent process, including public hearings, expert testimony, committee votes and review, open amendments, and open debate. The American financial system is suffering due to a lack of transparency, so why would anyone think that a closed political process could solve that?

Japan faced similar problems with their real estate market several years ago, and the government took a similar path to the one in the Wall Street bailout package. Experts now understand that the Japanese government deepened and lengthened the economic downturn, and Japan still has not recovered. (In fact, Japan is falling into another serious recession now.) Bad companies must fail, wiping out their shareholders and (hopefully) executives. The faster that happens, the more quickly the economy can recover. Otherwise financial companies will pause, waiting for government handouts and not taking the necessary steps promptly to correct their structural problems.

Some politicians seem to think that "painless" is still an option. It's not. This process will be painful. (It will be personally painful, too.) But let's get this process going, now, so we can recover more quickly. The Treasury, Fed, and FDIC still have awesome powers to provide liquidity, together with their central bank allies around the world, but solvency issues must be allowed to correct themselves. The rest of the U.S. Government can take a few simple steps: increasing unemployment insurance benefits, adopting the Obama tax plan (which would be highly stimulative since it is progressive), raising FDIC insurance limits to $250,000 and providing 90% coverage up to $1,000,000, indexing capital gains and equalizing the rate with ordinary income, and a few other, noncontroversial steps.

Lehman Brothers' Government Bailout?

2008-09-14T14:47:00.002+09:00

Over this weekend a group of Wall Street executives and U.S. Federal Reserve leaders are meeting to discuss what to do about troubled Lehman Brothers. Lehman could declare bankruptcy any moment now. Lots of "experts" claim that Lehman is too big to fail and that its collapse could cause widespread financial panic.

Oh really?

For perspective, stockholders currently value Lehman (at the close of trading on Friday) at a paltry $2.53B. Another company with the same market value is Thomas & Betts Corporation (who?), Memphis-based manufacturer of electrical, steel structural, and HVAC equipment. In other words, stockholders have already discounted Lehman, so those losses are already reflected in world markets. Investors are already giving high odds that Lehman will collapse, and that assessment is also already reflected in global financial company stock prices.

Lehman is a brokerage. Would investors holding brokerage accounts lose money? Probably not. Lehman participates in the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). It's a bit complicated, but let's suppose you have a 401(k) retirement account with Lehman valued at $3M. (You're doing well!) That account consists of various stock and bond holdings, and SIPC rules require Lehman to keep your account and others separate from their own assets. That rule should protect you automatically, but in the unlikely event it doesn't you still have an extra $500K of protection. That is, if Lehman's assets are liquidated and the money available doesn't quite cover the value of the underlying assets in your account, SIPC protects you against $500K of such "gap" losses. Since 1970, SIPC has protected over 99 percent of investors in brokerage bankruptcies, so very few people have lost anything.

In 2007, Lehman had $282B of assets under management according to their annual report. That's a reasonably big number, but those assets don't disappear in a bankruptcy. They are stocks, bonds, cash, etc. Some of those assets (about $60B) are mortgage-related assets, and some percentage of those are nonperforming. Lehman wanted to spin off these bad assets into a separate publicly traded company, selling those assets at a big discount to new investors to raise cash and write them off for good. Wall Street nixed that idea, probably because it would highlight problems at other firms even while saving Lehman. The biggest problem, but still small compared to the size of global markets, is the number of employees suddenly out of jobs, many of them high income employees with lavish lifestyles. Like the Arthur Andersen collapse in Chicago, their losses will be felt locally in New York to some extent. (Expect further declines in the local housing market as employees downsize and relocate.) Worldwide there are about 28,000 Lehman employees. Many of them (but certainly not all), especially the biggest earning (i.e. most "successful") individuals, will be offered employment to continue running whatever is left of Lehman. Secretaries and other junior employees will bear the brunt of the collapse both because they are more likely to lose their jobs and because they do not have as much financial cushion. No, life is not fair.

This Lehman situation is really a big game of chicken. To their credit, the Federal Reserve leaders do not seem interested in spending taxpayer money on a Lehman bailout. Wall Street executives, on the other hand, are doing their best to pretend that Lehman's collapse would be the End of the World(TM), in large part because Lehman is highlighting their own asset problems. I think what's going on here is that the Fed is happy to provide a conference room and a pot of coffee, but it's up to the private sector (and the bankruptcy code) to figure out Lehman's fate, and to continue the process of unwinding these bad assets throughout the industry.

"Presumptuous and Arrogant"?

2008-07-31T12:41:00.005+09:00

According to Dictionary.com, a synonym for presumptuous is arrogant. Another synonym is...uppity. As in, uppity negro. All class, that John McCain, isn't he? Josh Marshall decodes the dog whistle.

Meanwhile, McCain already crowns himself President. How...presumptuous.

Although I've got another couple words to describe McCain: pathetic and desperate.

UPDATE: Obama is exactly correct....

Bye Bye Citibank U.S.

2008-07-14T23:06:00.003+09:00

I managed to close my Citibank account. Oddly enough their exclusive procedure for "global executives" to do so involved sending a fax. How very...Reagan Era. But it worked.

I still bank with Citibank Japan, though. And I do hope Citibank, which is undergoing tremendous turmoil right now, recovers.

Meanwhile, this past weekend the FDIC seized control of IndyMac Bank in one of the U.S.'s largest bank failures ever.

Congratulations Senator Obama

2008-06-06T11:13:00.003+09:00

Many people around the world are fascinated with this year's U.S. presidential election. These beautiful ladies, fully aware of Barack Obama's Hawaiian heritage (also a plus in Japan), hail from the city of Obama in Fukui Prefecture, Japan. Understandably the city of Obama is enthusiastic about one of the two presidential candidates, and city leaders welcome any potential financial boost given their slightly ragged local economy. (Photo credit: Toru Yamanaka, AFP/Getty Images.)

But interest in Japan does not compare to feelings in Africa as Obama officially clinched the Democratic Party's nomination this week. (He mathematically clinched some time ago.) These positive feelings are deep and profound.

I must say it's wonderful to see so many people around the world viewing the United States and her people much more favorably.

Worst Banking Service Ever

2008-05-23T19:20:00.003+09:00

I completely concur with this report: Citibank's "Global Executive Banking" is absolutely terrible. In my case, it has been at least six months since I opened my account and Citibank still cannot figure out how to unblock the account after my company's personnel department has made countless attempts to verify with them that I do actually work for my company. During one of these attempts I literally sat next to the head of our personnel department who stayed on the phone with them at 10:00 p.m. Tokyo time. He was told they had everything they needed, but I later find out that the block is still in place.

Conveniently Citibank is now holding a fairly substantial sum of money and paying 0-point-trivial interest. (If you're not a "global executive" they'll pay more interest, about 2% more.) I also cannot fathom why "Global Executive Banking" is only open from 9 to 5 Eastern U.S. time Monday through Friday. On top of all that, it seems impossible to link my Citibank Global Executive Banking account with my Citibank Japan account. They might as well be Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC in terms of their interoperability.

UPDATE: In this blatantly false advertising which aired this year, the Citi Never Sleeps except of course for "global executives":

From Editorial Cartoonist Tom Toles

2008-04-26T12:21:00.003+09:00

Tokyo Broadband

2008-04-06T12:29:00.002+09:00

At home in Tokyo I have 100 Mbps Internet service, and it's just part of the normal rent for this particular building. Granted, rents are high, but truly high-speed Internet service isn't even if you have to pay for it separately. ASAHI Net, for example, charges anywhere from 3,035 to 3,570 per month for 100 Mbps service to an apartment, depending on where you live. Even DSL service (12 Mbps downstream/1 Mbps) is just 1,990 yen per month.

I was just watching Walter Mossberg complain about broadband service in the U.S. (Mossberg is the Wall Street Journal's technology writer.) He is correct. The Japanese are way ahead.

As another example, in Japan "One Seg" is getting quite popular. With One Seg you can watch digital television on a mobile telephone, free. The picture quality is quite reasonable. One Seg doesn't work while riding subways underground, but for a 90 minute typical commute into work about 60 minutes will probably be above ground. For the other 30 there's always 3G mobile e-mail and Web browsing which does work in the subway tunnels.

If that's not enough, Livedoor has blanketed about 80% of central Tokyo with WiFi service. That's only 525 yen per month. For comparison, it costs twice that rate for T-Mobile WiFi service in the U.S. Per day.

I Wasn't Alive to Hear the Gettysburg Address

2008-03-19T21:20:00.003+09:00

But I heard this speech. Did you?

By the way, Senator Obama wrote all the words.

U.S. Dollar Collapsing

2008-03-17T10:46:00.002+09:00

The U.S. dollar will now buy only about 97 yen as I write this post. It was around 120 not too long ago. The dollar has performed comparatively well against the Japanese yen, but apparently the normally activist Bank of Japan has no problem allowing the dollar to slide.

The good news is that my employer provides reasonable hedges against currency risk, so I do better than most. And my employer reports earnings in U.S. dollars, so a weak dollar is great news for the company on Wall Street. Most other U.S. expats and tourists will get hurt, however.

I will do a lot of shopping in the U.S. during my next trip there.

Although 97 yen is low, it's not the all-time record low. The record low of about 85 yen was set at the end of the first Bush recession, in the early 1990s.

What He Said

2008-03-13T18:11:00.000+09:00

Hanamasa Suffering

2008-02-16T09:56:00.004+09:00

Hanamasa is my favorite supermarket chain in Tokyo. The company mainly caters to the numerous small restaurants in the city, with most products packaged in quantities that Japanese consumers would consider "bulk," but anyone can shop there.

Hanamasa gets many of its products from China, and the Japanese are frightened about the quality of products from that country due to a recent incident involving tainted imported dumplings. Thus Hanamasa has closed a large number of stores, including the store nearest my home. That store was clearing stock during my last visit, and, to pick an example, I bought 3 Kg of frozen cooked boneless chicken for 1020 yen.

I can still get to a surviving Hanamasa store on bicycle, but it's much less convenient. So now I'm trying to figure out grocery shopping alternatives.

The MacBook Err

2008-01-18T13:29:00.000+09:00

I was prepared to open my wallet to buy Apple's new notebook computer. However, the machine is underwhelming and would soon grow frustrating to me. Let me say right at the outset that I am interested in a sole machine, not an accessory for another machine. I think even Apple would admit that the MBA is not a good choice unless you've got another machine somewhere, such as an iMac or desktop PC.

The most frustrating and artificial limitation is the maximum hard disk size, a paltry 80 GB. Toshiba and Samsung both have 120 GB hard disks in the same physical form factor as the 80 GB part, so let's hope Apple introduces a build-to-order option for the larger size pronto. (One workaround, for those already carrying iPods, is an iPod Classic with much of its space used as a second drive.) I'm also concerned about the 2 GB RAM limitation and hope Apple can rapidly introduce a 4 GB model. (Or better yet an expandable model beyond 4 GB.) You can never have enough memory.

The other limitations become more annoying as a consequence. A single USB port? Not fun, especially without an ethernet jack. Most of the hotels in Asia have ethernet but no wireless. And what happened to the Kensington-style computer locking slot? Apple couldn't find room on the machine to drill a hole? What are we supposed to do, lug the machine into the bathroom to prevent its theft? There's no audio-in jack. And the battery is sealed inside the machine like an iPod, so you can forget swapping batteries on a long flight.

There are a couple things Apple did right. The external Superdrive is priced fairly, and so is the USB-to-ethernet dongle. The screen and keyboard are nice, although the bezel around the screen is still too wide.

But to net it out, I'm not buying one. Sorry, Apple, you missed.

UPDATE: I didn't realize how hard Apple missed, assuming Lenovo ships reasonably soon at a fair price. Their new ThinkPad X300 looks like an incredible piece of engineering.

Presidential Primary Voting from Abroad

2007-12-28T19:34:00.000+09:00

If you are an eligible U.S. voter living overseas, the Democratic Party offers the option of voting in the Democrats Abroad Presidential Primary instead of voting in your home state primary or caucus. The Democratic Party will seat Democrats Abroad voting delegates at the party convention, so it is a real primary.

There are certain rules you must follow, including especially that you can only vote in the Democrats Abroad primary or in your home state primary, not both. Also, you must be a registered member of Democrats Abroad by January 31, 2008, in order to vote by fax, Internet, or mail. Details are here, and you can register here. It's quick and painless. Otherwise, you'll have to vote in person in certain cities abroad, and you can also register in person if necessary. The primary will be held from February 5-12, 2008.

There is a Republicans Abroad organization, but as far as I know the Republican Party does not hold a global presidential primary for U.S. voters living overseas. If you wish to vote in a Republican primary or caucus, you'll have to do that through your home state. If it's a caucus or convention, you'll have to travel back to your home state to participate in person. Note also that you cannot be both a Republican and a Democrat in the same election cycle for purposes of voting for presidential nominees. For example, if you vote in your home state Republican primary you cannot vote in the Democrats Abroad global primary.

Shake! 350 GPS Mini-Review

2007-11-24T14:19:00.000+09:00

I'm quite pleased with the Shake! 350 GPS. It is indeed possible to update the database using a Mac or Linux PC: just download the update file, place it on a Secure Digital (SD) memory card, put the memory card in the GPS, and finally instruct the GPS to load the update.

I was concerned about the Centrality Atlas II GPS receiver and its reception quality. The JROAD models use the more famous SiRF III receiver, known for its ability to get a position fix fast and hold onto GPS signals. But the Atlas II seems quite adequate, at least with limited testing.

It's a little too easy to turn the unit on accidentally. The touch screen is also a little too sensitive on occasion. And the English translations are sometimes odd. However, given the very limited market, this unit is still quite useful and a good value.

English GPS Navigation

2007-11-19T14:02:00.000+09:00

The Japanese domestic car market has the world's highest penetration of factory-installed navigation systems. It's not hard to figure out why: the road system is complicated, and making a wrong turn could add significant delay due to traffic congestion. Many of these navigation systems are extremely sophisticated and feature Bluetooth wireless connections to mobile phone accessories, television reception, live traffic reports, and even photo albums, to remember the children you rarely see. Auto manufacturers make a lot of money selling these systems.

Japan's early and enthusiastic embrace of these systems means that portable navigation devices (PNDs) haven't really caught on yet. However, the market is changing. Flash memory now competes favorably with DVD storage, and many Japanese are willing to accept 80% of the function at 10% of the price. Also, up until this year expatriates only had two choices for English-language navigation systems. Both are full sized DVD-based (and/or hard disk-based) systems priced at about $2,500 installed. Nissan offers one of these systems, both for its own vehicles and for other vehicles. They do work fairly well in English, with English voice prompts, but street names are still in Japanese. Most owners learn to save locations into the navigation system's database, perhaps struggling to reach the destination the first time. Another option is to enter a landline telephone number, and the navigation system will guide you to the general area corresponding to that number. These capabilities are extremely valuable to bewildered expats, and there's no question these big screen systems have advantages.

This year two companies started shipping English language PNDs for the Japanese domestic market. One device is called the Shake!350, sometimes also written as SHAKE 350, from GrandMap Navi. This device weighs just over 150 grams and has a small 3.5 inch touch sensitive color screen, rechargeable battery with home and car chargers, car mounting bracket, 1 GB of flash memory with a slot to add more, USB cable, English voice prompts, and, best of all, English (i.e. Romanji) street and location names displayed on the map and in the location search screens. With a little on-line comparison shopping I was able to find a brand new one on sale for a mere 29,000 yen. The company seems to provide free downloadable database updates on its Web site, although all the Web pages are in Japanese. Even so, I could figure it out with a little help from Google's translator, and they do have a PDF copy of the product manual, in English.

Unlike some of the factory-installed systems, PNDs don't have gyroscopes or other motion sensing features that augment GPS. Thus the GPS signal will occasionally drop out in tunnels and in urban "canyons," with tall buildings blocking GPS satellite coverage. Also, the screen is typically much smaller, and car installation isn't as neat or integrated. However, one major advantage (which some higher priced Japanese mobile phones share) is that you can take a PND on a bicycle or on a walk. There's also the price advantage of course.

These trade-offs seemed acceptable to me, so I ordered a Shake!350 today, and I should receive it later this week. I'll try to post a product review in a couple weeks. For the record, JROAD also offers two PNDs in this narrow category (i.e. domestic Japanese PNDs with English language support): the JRN400 and JRN410. These two models are pretty much identical, except the JRN410 has flashing LEDs that signal left or right to the driver. The LEDs seem like overkill on top of voice prompts, but Japanese gadget makers have never been shy about adding gimmicks. On paper the Shake!350 looks slightly better overall, although JROAD may have the superior GPS receiver. Both share one major disadvantage, especially for Mac OS X and Linux users: they run Microsoft Windows CE (a.k.a. Windows Mobile). How do I update the Shake!350's database using Mac OS X, for example? PocketMac or Missing Sync may do the trick. I might get lucky and be able to mount the device just like any other USB drive to copy files, and hopefully a simple file copy is enough.

Japanese PC Market Declining

2007-11-05T10:36:00.000+09:00

The Associated Press has an interesting story confirming what I observe all around me: the Japanese are rapidly entering a post-PC world. (Slashdot has the details, among other places.) Of course you'll see PCs, but they aren't by any means the center of the universe, and sales are declining with mobile phones, game consoles, the iPod, and home entertainment devices all taking marketshare.

One possible reason not mentioned in the article is the Japanese language: is the QWERTY-style keyboard comparatively more useful to enter Japanese text than a mobile phone keypad? However, I think Japan is leading the way and that other PC-saturated markets like the U.S. and certain European countries will exhibit similar trends.

The comments on Slashdot are interesting, with many people pointing out that PCs make great word processors, and that word processing doesn't require ever more powerful systems, so the churn rate is diminishing. I think that's true, but is word processing particularly important, especially at home? Word processing arose at a time when people still mailed business letters and documents. With ubiquitous e-mail, do people really need full blown word processors? I seldom fire up a word processing program.

My new and comparatively low tech Korean-made mobile telephone paired with a Japanese service provider offers rich e-mail (including sounds, pictures, videos, and compatibility with popular word processing and spreadsheet formats, plus PDF), a built-in answering machine and voice recorder, camera, video calling, direct PictBridge printing (Bluetooth or USB), personal information management functions (calendar, alarms, address book), Web browsing, a Japanese-English dictionary, and iPod-like functions (audio and video), among other features. And this is the simplest model I could find. Of course it makes sense that many people don't want or need a PC.

SiCKO

2007-09-27T22:38:00.000+09:00

Michael Moore's film SiCKO opened in Japan on September 1, and there was a special screening that day with a special ticket price that I attended. Go see it if you haven't already.

So here's my healthcare anecdote for today. I needed to have a chalazion removed. I was planning to travel to the U.S. anyway, so I called for an appointment over 3 weeks in advance. No availability; first apppointment is 3 weeks after that (6 weeks in the future).

So I visited our company doctor in Tokyo — yes, we have a company doctor — and she recommended an opthamologist which had an appointment available in three days. I had a meeting that day, so I checked the Tokyo U.S. Embassy's Web site, found another opthamologist, and they had an appointment in two days, which was earlier today as I write this.

I took the short subway ride over to their office. I arrived at 2 o'clock. I filled out a postcard-sized form and waited just a few minutes. An English speaking doctor who said he was also licensed in Nevada (!) examined me and, after a brief conversation, said he could do the minor surgery that afternoon. I went over to the operating area, and he quickly performed the procedure. Downstairs I paid my bill — I'm not on Japanese domestic insurance, which is atypical — and got a prescription form to take around the block to the pharmacy window. About 5 minutes there with a six question form (to prevent drug interactions), and after paying a smaller bill, I got my eyedrops. Then I was on my way.

The total bill, for the exam, minor eyelid surgery, and prescription eyedrops, in Tokyo, Japan? Just under US $100. That's less than a third of the Chicago price. And I got my appointment within 2 days, went in at 2 and was out before 4. In Chicago I've waited 90 minutes routinely after arriving just to see a nurse. That $100 receipt will be sent to my insurance company, which is great by U.S. standards but that form will be the longest. Obviously I wouldn't mind being on the Japanese domestic system one bit.

Michael Moore is right. Americans pay more for healthcare and get less. In one of the most expensive cities in the world it's cheaper and better, even for a foreigner.

Driving in Tokyo?

2007-09-17T17:54:00.000+09:00

Am I crazy? Maybe.

I'm moving to a new apartment in a couple weeks, and it includes a parking spot. So I'm thinking about getting a car. For shopping and weekend trips, it'd be useful.

Typhoon Fitow Strikes Japan

2007-09-06T20:10:00.000+09:00

Throughout the office building, a woman's voice advised, "We recommend you go home early today." I think most people heeded the advice and headed home before 6:00 p.m.

Typhoon Fitow is striking Japan tonight and overnight. You can follow the storm's progress at the Japan Meteorological Agency's typhoon page.

Passport to Delay

2007-09-06T09:01:00.000+09:00

I hope the next administration in Washington improves the U.S. passport system. According to press reports, the system is broken, with long delays.

My passport expires in August, 2008. That means I can no longer obtain 12 month visas from many countries, because most countries will not issue visas that last longer than the passport itself. So I decided to pursue getting my passport renewed now, in person, at the U.S. Embassy (a.k.a. "The Fortress") in Tokyo. The Fortress is only a 15 or 20 minute walk away from where I live.

I filled out and printed the online renewal form, to be ready to go when I arrived. However, I quickly found out that it's the wrong form. You'd think the State Department would have the correct form available. The Fortress staff are quite friendly and helpful, so that's a plus. The cashier accepts U.S. credit cards for the fee and charges U.S. dollars, so there's no problem with foreign exchange. There's a fast and effective photo booth to obtain the proper sized pictures. All that works well.

The problem is that you have to surrender your passport to process the renewal, and renewal could take a couple weeks. Hasn't anybody figured out that's a huge problem for the prototypical global businessman, not to mention many other people? I'm still trying to understand how a U.S. citizen staying in Tokyo but without an alien registration card ("short term" stay) would be able to comply with Japanese law while getting a passport renewed. Most countries expect you to have your passport (or alien registration card, for longer term stays) handy at all times while visiting.

The other problem is that if The Fortress has your passport, you're stuck and cannot leave Japan. If I get an urgent call tomorrow to go fix some problem two hours away in Korea, there's nothing I can do. If there's a family emergency, I need to hope I can retrieve my passport from The Fortress.

So why does The Fortress need to hold my current passport in order to renew it? And why hasn't anyone figured out that's a huge problem? I could understand holding it for the day. (Most visa issuing countries will let you drop off a passport in the morning and pick it up in the afternoon, stamped with the visa.) But 10 days? Two weeks?

I can only imagine how much worse it could be at other embassies. As I said, the staff were quite friendly and helpful. It's the process itself that makes no sense in 2007.

While I think visas should be abolished for tourism and short-term business trips at least, I do want to applaud Australia for having the most convenient and trouble-free visa system I've encountered. The whole process is available online, instantly. You type in your passport details and your credit card details (for the small fee), click a button, and a few seconds later you have your visa. Airlines can electronically verify you have a visa when you check in and, if you don't, they can do the same thing for you on the spot. In fact, the whole process is so painless that Australia doesn't even call it a visa. Granted, if you're a citizen from a country that Australia wants to discriminate against, usually for economic stereotyping reasons, then the process is much slower and more painful.

"Tokyo Breakfast"

2007-09-02T20:00:00.000+09:00

I'm not sure what to make of this Japanese television pilot that never made it into full production. It spoofs many bad American sitcoms.

But Does She Know Where Japan Is?

2007-08-30T08:29:00.000+09:00

Smile, You're at a Kaiten-zushi

2007-08-12T22:36:00.000+09:00

I'm headed to Melbourne, Sydney, and Canberra in about a week, and I'll have a little bit of time for tourism. Any suggestions where to go, what to see, and what to do?

Strong Earthquake

2007-07-16T10:23:00.000+09:00

At about 10:15 a.m. Tokyo time this morning on July 16, we felt a strong earthquake. This earthquake hit 6.6 (on the Japanese 7 point scale) on the western coast, so that meant roughly a 2 in metropolitan Tokyo.

Unfortunately today is a public holiday (Ocean Day) here in Japan, so I suspect many people are at home. While it's unlikely anyone was hurt near Tokyo, I am concerned about the western parts of Japan and whether anyone was caught inside an older home.

A Unique Mechanical Calculator

2007-07-09T10:39:00.000+09:00

I find the history of computing fascinating, and very often I learn a new detail about the complex evolution of how mankind adds two plus two.

So I was thrilled to discover that, for a little over two decades, a small European company manufactured a mechanical calculator weighing as little as half a pound: the Curta. It's an engineering marvel, and it doesn't use any electricity. Curta sold these interesting miniaturized devices until 1973, by which time electronic calculators had rendered even the most inventive mechanical calculators obsolete in most parts of the world. (The abacus is still popular in a few countries, and in certain specialized fields, such as aviation, analog slide calculators are still fairly common.)

I watched one Curta on eBay soar to a closing price of US$1150. Clearly I'm not the only person to find these gadgets interesting.

Introducing Paul Pott

2007-06-15T06:40:00.000+09:00

A longer version of the clip my brother recommended. Enjoy.

Update: This clip comes from ITV's programme Britain's Got Talent. The winner will perform for The Queen in a variety show. In his debut performance above, Paul sang a part of the aria "Nessun dorma" from Puccini's Turandot. Nessun dorma means "Let no one sleep." I think Simon Cowel was wide awake.

Update #2: Paul won.

10 Reasons Why the Mainframe is Growing in Importance

2007-06-07T14:34:00.000+09:00

CA offers a useful list describing the biggest reasons why mainframes are becoming more relevant to today's businesses. I like this list, although I'd make clear that the numbers don't imply a ranking.

Which City Now? Redux & Updated

2007-05-18T23:30:00.000+09:00

Here are the cities currently in the running:

Tokyo
Hong Kong
an Australian city (Sydney, Perth, Brisbane, Melbourne...)
Seoul
Taipei

Of course, cities in the United States are still open. The Asia-Pacific cities are roughly in order of likelihood. If anyone has any opinions on these various cities, by all means feel free to comment.

Spring 2007 in Tokyo

2007-05-15T17:29:00.000+09:00

We have had several weeks of glorious spring weather here in Tokyo, with seasonable temperatures, limited rain, and considerable sunshine.

Just thought I'd mention that.

Which City Now?

2007-04-28T17:30:00.000+09:00

This past week my employer decided to split one part of the world into two parts. Thus I have to choose one of the two parts, or I can return to a third (the Americas). My options are:

1. Stay in part #1 (Tokyo).
2. Move to part #2 (pretty much anywhere in Asia-Pacific, except Japan).
3. Move back to part #3 (pretty much any U.S. city).

I'm not sure what I want to do. Living in another city is much different than visiting. Which cities treat general aviation well?

Essential English

2007-04-01T21:41:00.000+09:00

Last week I taught some "business English" to several colleagues, and they seemed to enjoy the lesson. It was a way to combine work with some bonus language practice.

Meanwhile, here's a look at the important English young women need most. Be patient and watch the whole video: this aerobics class takes some time to warm up.

Are these women really getting any exercise?

I Did Not Steal the Gold

2007-03-19T19:54:00.000+09:00

The news anywhere else in the world would be that a museum encouraged visitors to touch a 100 Kg gold bar.

I wonder how the four men will manage to convert the gold to something a little more spendable.

"Mac v. PC" in Japan

2007-02-25T21:07:00.000+09:00

Expect Early Cherry Blossoms in Japan

2007-02-18T19:02:00.000+09:00

January, 2007, was our planet's warmest January in recorded weather history, smashing the old record set in 2002. Global warming is upon us, and how. For what it's worth, the average American is responsible for about 2.5 times the greenhouse gas emissions as his counterpart in Japan.

One side effect is that Japan's famous cherry blossoms will open much earlier than usual. The plum blossoms are already way ahead of schedule.

Update: The official forecast is that Tokyo's cherry blossoms will open on March 23, 2007.

Later Update: Officially the first blossoms opened in Tokyo on March 20, 2007. Forecasters apologize profusely for the imprecise estimate.

Shake, Rattle & Roll

2007-02-04T21:08:00.000+09:00

About nine minutes ago there was a small earthquake here in the greater Tokyo area. There's a terrific Web site (http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake) which immediately provided extremely accurate data: earthquake at 20:59 JST 04 Feb 2007, location 35.6N 140.1E, depth 80 Km, magnitude 4.2....

....Ah, now the Web site has more sensors reporting. In my part of the city it was magnitude 1+ or 2+, depending on the exact location. This technology is amazing.

Update: The numerical magnitude numbers used in Japan are based on the JMA Seismic Intensity Scale, which ranges from 0 to 7.

System z Sales Strong...Again

2007-01-22T15:00:00.000+09:00

IBM announced its financial results for the 4th quarter of 2006 late last week. Digging into the earnings announcement a bit, IBM revealed that System z was a bright spot, performing extremely well. Yet again. (Dear industry analysts: when you see these sorts of results for years running, could you all please acknowledge that mainframes are growing in popularity? They're the most sophisticated and capable general purpose business computers, and they run just about any software you care to name, so it makes sense.)

In my own little part of the world we saw two brand new mainframe customers sign with IBM, one of them in a brand new industry for System z. Although mainframe Linux is especially popular among new mainframe customers, it's worth noting that both these new customers will run z/OS. (No, z/OS is not too difficult. Let's drop that canard.) It's very exciting and gratifying when my colleagues experience these successes. And if I can help, great.

Matt Harding Dances Around the World

2007-01-22T14:53:00.000+09:00

I travel a lot, and I have a lot of stamps in my passport, but this guy has quite the impressive video scrapbook:

What's the Rent for a Tokyo Airplane Hangar?

2007-01-21T22:52:00.000+09:00

At Chofu Airport it's a mere ¥150,000 per month ($1,237 at today's exchange rate) to rent space in a community hangar for a single engine airplane.

I mention this fact because I'm trying to figure out if I can bring my airplane over here. Hangar costs may not be the only issue.

My Top Macintosh Annoyances

2007-01-20T13:06:00.000+09:00

Now that I've had several months to enjoy my MacBook I've had time to discover its flaws. The Macintosh is very, very good, but it's not perfect. Perhaps someone knows how to solve at least a few of these annoyances, which are not necessarily in priority order. So, "Dear Apple..."

1. Resuming from suspend. Occasionally Mac OS X won't come back after closing and then opening the cover. Closing and reopening the cover seems to work around this problem.

2. Open versus secured wireless networks. The little wireless control (right side of the top menu bar) doesn't display a symbol or other indication about which wireless networks are open and which are closed (WEP, for example). Apple, please add little padlocks next to the secured network names. The sledgehammer solution seems to be to get a third party Dashboard widget to do the job.

3. LEAP wireless networks aren't remembered. Apple published a workaround, but this issue should be fixed.

4. No standard backup program. For shame, Apple. Why is it going to take until Leopard (Mac OS X 10.5) to fix this? You're helping your customers put their precious files at risk.

5. Volume and brightness controls often do not respond immediately. That's because these are "softkeys," governed by software drivers in the operating system. ThinkPads don't seem to suffer from this problem.

6. Why are the USB ports on the left? Just to make sure the mouse cable needs to stretch as far as possible? See if you can put a USB port on the right, and that'll also solve the problem of having the two ports too close together.

7. There are several hotkeys available at bootup. Would it be possible to list them on screen?

8. Please don't put the eject button next to the F12 button, with the same shape and size as all the other function keys. At least shave about a quarter key width off the left size of the eject button. Also, please put some sort of dimple on the F1 and F12 function keys, like the F and J keys.

9. I like TrackPoints. Could you license them? They should be pretty cheap by now. A one button trackpad just isn't cutting it, and it takes a lot of space. Speaking of which, any chance for a subnotebook? I don't mean the iPhone or a funky tablet.

10. Allow buyers to delete the built-in video camera with build-to-order models. There are corporate security environments that ban cameras (and thus MacBooks).

11. Please investigate better plastics that are easier to clean. If the New York City subway can resist graffiti, surely MacBooks (even white ones) can resist stains and fingerprints better.

12. The MacBook's memory configuration is awful. Even the low-end ThinkPad R series now supports up to 4 GB, but a MacBook tops out at a paltry 2 GB. Please fix this with a firmware upgrade for all MacBooks, at least like you did the MacBook Pros. Yes, we understand you used a crappy video chip that runs a bit slower when you put in different sized memory modules (e.g. 3 GB configuration), but we'll suck it up.

13. When you ship a standard MacBook, don't ship it with two 256 MB memory modules. You're just filling landfills that way. Ship only a single 512 MB memory module (or at least make it a build-to-order option). Yes, we understand the crappy video chip will be slightly more crappy that way, but again we'll suck it up.

14. If you do ship a MacBook with only 512 MB, spend some time tuning Mac OS X to behave a little better in its limited playpen. (Maybe you'll solve this issue with Leopard?) A System Preferences checkbox or button ("Optimize Mac OS X for limited memory") would be sufficient.

15. Maybe not your fault, but why does Firefox sometimes lose contact with the keyboard? Fortunately closing and reopening Firefox reestablishes keyboard control.

16. How do I use the keyboard to select different buttons in a dialog box? I still haven't figured that one out.

17. I know it's thoroughly entrenched in the Macintosh user interface, but is it really necessary to run a mouse marathon all the way up to the top of the screen to reach the menu bar?

18. Is there any true window maximize option (to fill the available screen real estate)? Shift-Zoom (Zoom is the green button at the upper left of each window) only sometimes works.

19. The spinning beach ball.

20. Why isn't there a proper set of extra large mouse pointers? Increasing the mouse pointer size results in a pixelated pointer. Not cool.

Japanese Crowd "Game"

2007-01-17T16:22:00.000+09:00

Thanks, Kyle, for sending this one to me.

I Won Time's Person of the Year

2006-12-17T11:52:00.000+09:00

And so did you....

I Feel the Earth Move Under My Feet

2006-12-09T13:00:00.000+09:00

There were two small back-to-back earthquakes in Tokyo this morning. Fortunately I just received my officially issued corporate first aid kit. Unfortunately the kit anticipates a bird flu crisis rather than anything more pedestrian like an earthquake. Fortunately the building management places an earthquake preparedness kit in every bedroom.

People have strange ideas about risk. Last year IBM asked a distant colleague if he'd travel to Manila on business. He refused, citing the fact that there's a U.S. State Department travel warning concerning the Philippines. IBM cannot force him to go in such circumstances, so management asked if I'd be willing to go. (That's called "risk shopping," I guess.) I said, "Sure, but let me check something first." I found out that this colleague lives in Miami. Using the power of Google, I found the crime and population statistics for metropolitan Miami and Manila. Then I phoned my manager back and said, "You might want to explain that he should pack up immediately and bring his entire family as soon as possible, permanently, to live in Manila. Miami's murder rate is three times higher."

He took the trip.

Airborne Connections

2006-11-21T19:29:00.000+09:00

I'm aboard Japan Airlines Flight 6. JAL is one of the airlines that outfitted many of its long haul airliners with live Internet service, thanks to Boeing's substantial investment in the satellite-based technology. Unfortunately Boeing announced that they'll terminate service at the end of this year, marking a giant step backwards in human progress.

Two kids are sitting near me, and they've been quite animated the whole trip. Thus sleep will have to wait. There's a Japanese gentleman sitting one row back, and occasionally, rarely, he visits mom and the kids. He's the father I guess. He sleeps just fine while mom handles the tykes.

This little glimpse into Japanese airborne household life brought to you by Boeing and JAL, live as it happens. I'll order some shochu now. Maybe that'll work. Kids are great, except when they're not your relations.

Hi, KK!

Democratic Politics

2006-11-12T17:14:00.000+09:00

Several people in the Philippines asked me about the U.S. election. Everyone I met who brought up the subject is pleased with the result.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a "100 hour" agenda which she promises, and her list isn't bad. If the Democrats are going to pass a minimum wage increase then it ought to be indexed to inflation, but that's a quibble. In the next 100 hours, how about fixing the broken election system? There's a simple fix: adopt Oregon's vote-by-mail system nationally. Does anyone have a cogent, reasoned argument against vote-by-mail? It looks like a great system.

The $5 Haircut

2006-11-10T22:39:00.000+09:00

I just got back from Manila tonight. This morning, before I left, I got rid of my shaggy mane. There's a huge shopping mall near the Edsa Shangri-La Hotel. On the 3rd floor there's a full service haircutting shop. "Ricky Eyes" is the name, I think.

For 180 pesos (about $3.60) you get a haircut including straight razor finishing (sides, back, and around the ears), shampoo, blow dry, and back/shoulder massage. Two people take care of you during the 45 minute process.

I was so impressed I left an extra 70 pesos. Tipping is not required in the Philippines.

The Japan Airlines Class System

2006-11-04T22:14:00.000+09:00

With more than 12 years of business travel, no airline has ever bestowed me with top tier elite status. That's probably because I don't choose an airline flight based on frequent flyer benefits. Instead I choose flights based on a convenient schedule, friendly and professional service, and sensible fares — you know, the characteristics U.S. airlines forgot.

This year is different. I signed up for Japan Mileage Bank (JMB) at the beginning of the year, expecting I would fly Japan Airlines frequently, maybe too frequently. I've steadily moved up the multi-tier JAL class system: Crystal (25,000 miles), Sapphire (50,000 miles), Sapphire plus Japan Global Club, and now Japan Global Club Premier (70,000 miles). By the end of November I will qualify for Diamond (100,000 miles), which means I receive a key to the executive washroom or something.

What an insane amount of flying.

Mooney Over Japan

2006-10-27T13:54:00.000+09:00

Photos from late August on one of the few good weather days. Tokyo-Chofu to/from Oshima Island and vicinity aboard one of the approximately 15 Mooneys in all of Japan.

Engrish

2006-10-26T14:26:00.000+09:00

On the front of the 10th floor soft drink vending machine, IBM office, Tokyo:

CANNED BEVERAGE MAKES YOU REFRESH.
WE CAREFULLY DID THE BEST SELECTION.
THEY ARE OUTSTANDING AMONG OTHERS.

Better than my Japanese unfortunately.

Tokyo Weather

2006-10-10T22:40:00.000+09:00

Yesterday (Monday) was "Health and Fitness Day" (or something like that), giving most Japanese workers a long holiday weekend. Japanese holidays are so practical. Friday's downpours suggested the weekend would be a washout, but all three days and even today, Tuesday, have been absolutely beautiful with sunshine, blue skies, moderate temperatures, and low humity. It's the best run of good weather since I arrived.

I don't watch much television at all, especially with this great weather, but I try not to miss Project Runway. What could be better than watching a bunch of neurotic fashion designers try to clothe starving (literally) models with materials scavenged from a dumpster (for example)? Season 3's final episode airs this week, and I'd like to see either Michael or Laura win.

UPDATE: Laura and Michael finished third and fourth, respectively. Now I can concentrate my limited television viewing on Torchwood and Battlestar Galactica.

Meet Singapore's Idol

2006-09-28T22:58:00.000+09:00

I predicted well. Hady, congratulations. I have no idea what you're saying half the time, but at least you can sing on key most of the time.

Macintosh Keyboard Questions

2006-09-16T11:07:00.000+09:00

Mac geeks, here's a question: in the Finder, is a double click the only way to launch something, or is there a keyboard shortcut? More generally, what's a good reference for keyboard accelerators?

Keyboards are still more efficient for many tasks, and I'm trying to adjust.

Expecting Criminal Indictments at HP

2006-09-14T08:00:00.000+09:00

California's Attorney General, Bill Lockyer, dropped a bombshell about two hours ago:

"We currently have sufficient evidence to indict people both within HP as well as contractors on the outside," Lockyer said on PBS's NewsHour with Jim Lehrer. "Crimes have been committed," Lockyer said. "People's identities being taken falsely is a crime. People gaining access to computer records that have personal information, in California, that's a crime."

The Hewlett family needs to come back in and clean house. This behavior is disgraceful.

Singapore Idol 2006

2006-08-27T12:14:00.000+09:00

I say it's Hady Mirza, all the way. He can sing decently, and the rest, with the inconsistent exception of Jonathan Leong, could make soap curdle singing in the shower. Paul Twohill would stain the soap with mascara, too. "Not that there's anything wrong with that."

Sometimes people ask me what I do professionally, and they might ask the question, "What's a mainframe?" Maybe these videos help answer that question. Maybe.

I'm adjusting well to my new MacBook. The keyboard is a bit different, and I'm still trying to figure out the keyboard accelerators to stay productive. The standard memory (512 MB) is a bit on the light side, but it's not too horrible. I've had a couple applications crash, but the operating system itself seems rock solid. Everything I need to do at the office can be done. Keeping the machine clean will be a huge challenge. Anybody have any advice for cleaning a white MacBook?

UPDATE: Hady is in the final ~~four~~ ~~three~~ two.

MacBook Left Alaska

2006-08-08T08:46:00.000+09:00

Fedex reports that my MacBook enjoyed a brief visit to Anchorage and is now winging its way toward Chicago. I hope it wasn't too disoriented crossing the date line.

The help desk people were unable to recover anything from my crashed hard disk, so I am thinking about sending it out to a data recovery specialist just in case there's something on there I might want. Fortunately the important information is replicated (Lotus Notes databases) or backed up, for the most part. Later today I'm going to see if I can recover iTunes from the iPod.

UPDATE: I recovered the vast majority of the iTunes. My MacBook, born in China just a few days ago, is now sitting at the Fedex depot just three blocks from my Chicago apartment. Nice job, Apple.

LATER UPDATE: Fedex knocked on my door in Chicago, and I wasn't home. I'm still in Tokyo. My MacBook beat me to Chicago. Also, the polls are open in Connecticut as I write this update, and here's hoping that Ned Lamont defeats the odious Senator Lieberman. To my friends and family in Connecticut, please remember to vote early and often for Mr. Lamont.

EVEN LATER UPDATE: My MacBook has arrived. Fedex was able to deliver to my building's office. Tonight I fly to Chicago to catch up with it.

EVEN LATER THAN LATER UPDATE: Ned Lamont is now Connecticut's Democratic nominee for the 2006 U.S. Senate election. Thank you, Connecticut.

Mandarin Smiles

2006-08-06T16:23:00.000+09:00

The hard disk crashed, but at least I had luck shopping: four 425g cans of Mandarin oranges are only 210 yen (about 52 yen each) on sale at the local Hanamasa market, now through at least some of September. I bought 12 cans.

Limping Along

2006-08-05T17:16:00.000+09:00

Lots of non-mainframe personal computer news to report. A couple days ago I managed to drop my ThinkPad about two feet onto a carpeted floor. The machine is over four years old now, and that drop was one too many for the hard disk.

I pulled the hard drive this morning so that I'm not tempted to work on it any more. I need a specialist to see what data he can pull off. Right now I'm using a bootable Linux CD to get online, yet another reason to like Linux. If there's nothing to save then I'll lose about 11 months of ancillary data. Most of what's important is protected in Lotus Notes replicated databases, though. Notable losses might include recent photos, many iTunes downloads (but they were all the free ones), and a couple spreadsheets I'll miss somewhat.

A more recent backup would have been nice, but I'll live.

I decided to purchase an Apple MacBook, and hopefully the new machine will arrive in about a week. Perhaps it's silly buying one's own machine mostly for office use, but I figure I'll splurge and meet new people who will want to know why there's a Macintosh in the office. Like the newer ThinkPads, the MacBook has a motion sensor which will park the hard disk heads before they crash. Unlike the newer ThinkPads the MacBook has a magnetic power cord attachment, so it is not possible to trip over the cord and send the machine tumbling.

If anyone has MacBook advice, feel free to share. I ordered the basic 1.8 GHz model with a 100 GB hard disk, VGA adapter (for presentations), and a free (after rebate) printer/scanner/copier. Is NeoOffice any good?

UPDATE: Apple shipped the printer but not the computer yet. So I called asking them to upgrade to two-day shipping to Chicago. "I'm sorry, we can't do that." The computer hasn't left, and it may not leave for days, but Apple can't seem to slap a two-day sticker on the box. All of which means I'll need a minor miracle to receive the computer before my flight back to Japan. There's still a chance, but I'm nervous.

LATER UPDATE: Like this consumer, I see that Apple is shipping my MacBook directly from China to Chicago. The good news is that Fedex thinks the MacBook will arrive on August 9, the day I arrive in Chicago. I hope Fedex is correct. Too bad Apple cannot parachute the MacBook into Tokyo before I leave.

Nikko Is Beautiful

2006-07-27T13:34:00.000+09:00

Photo taken on June 24, 2006.

This Ninja Never Sleeps

2006-07-23T11:31:00.000+09:00

It was raining on July 16, 2006, at Kyoto Studio Park, but there's at least one ninja who never sleeps.

I Stay

2006-07-23T11:28:00.000+09:00

Management on both sides of the Pacific worked out their differences and, with my agreement of course, I will be staying in Japan, most probably until June 30, 2007.

UPDATE: Will I stay in Japan or will I live somewhere else in Asia? A little uncertainty surfaced yesterday. Stay tuned, blog readers.

Bali Hi

2006-07-22T07:58:00.000+09:00

I've had a somewhat strange travel week. A customer wanted to meet in Bali for several days, so on Tuesday I boarded the one Japan Airlines nonstop flight. When I arrived I learned that the customer decided to postpone the meeting, so I spent some of Wednesday on the beach. At about noon one of my colleagues asked, "Could you come to Kuala Lumpur then visit Singapore?" So I did.

Unfortunately Bali is not crowded right now. There's a persistent U.S. State Department travel warning, so lots of Americans avoid the place. (There were several vacationing Germans, however.) My flight appeared to be mostly full when I booked it, but the recent news about another Indonesian tsunami that killed hundreds in Java, not Bali, nonetheless largely emptied the 747 I boarded Tuesday. The hotel was likewise sparsely populated, and right now is supposedly high season.

I think lots of people consider the State Department warnings to have veto authority over their travel plans, but I have a somewhat different outlook. I do read them and take them seriously, and I do not like to take unnecessary risks. However, we all take risks. Crossing the street is risky, for example. As another example, last year I received a call asking if I would be willing to travel to Manila to teach an IBM internal class. One of my colleagues declined because there is a State Department travel warning for the Philippines. I did a little bit of research and determined the number of people in greater Manila who suffered violent death (murders, terrorist or otherwise) over the past few years. I compared that number to the same number for Dade County (Miami), my colleague's home area. I gave greater weight to more recent violence, and I also looked for differences in targeting Americans specifically. (There did not seem to be any particular targeting by nationality in either city.) Then I told him it would probably be a good idea to pack all his belongings and bring his whole family immediately and permanently to Manila because the rate of total death-inducing violent crime was about three times higher in Miami.

He went to Manila to teach the class.

As a side comment, I understand that the 9/11 deaths do not appear in official U.S. crime statistics or airline fatality statistics. Why? They should. Dead is dead.

There's a lesson here for computing. Sometimes staying put — inertia — is the riskiest move of all. That's especially true when your business changes and your information technology doesn't. For instance, in 1981 American Airlines introduced the AAdvantage frequent flyer program. Had Delta, Northwest, and other airlines not responded quickly with their own programs (and significant associated IT changes) they would have suffered grievous financial difficulties. "Our systems are stable, so we don't want to take the risk of changing them in any way" would have led to liquidation in that highly competitive industry. I try to explain this idea to my Japanese colleagues with partial success — many Japanese companies do not yet fully feel the effects of competition in what is still a highly cartelized domestic market. That's not to say that IT organizations should change systems and infrastructure just because there's a new whiz bang technology — that happened a lot in the 1990s — but IT should be highly responsive (or better yet anticipatory) to business needs. Perhaps this argument is obvious, but it is amazing how many IT organizations fail to serve business goals. In many such cases the CEO becomes incredibly frustrated, so he/she outsources the whole IT operation to, among others, IBM.