Saturday, December 09, 2006

I Feel the Earth Move Under My Feet

There were two small back-to-back earthquakes in Tokyo this morning. Fortunately I just received my officially issued corporate first aid kit. Unfortunately the kit anticipates a bird flu crisis rather than anything more pedestrian like an earthquake. Fortunately the building management places an earthquake preparedness kit in every bedroom.

People have strange ideas about risk. Last year IBM asked a distant colleague if he'd travel to Manila on business. He refused, citing the fact that there's a U.S. State Department travel warning concerning the Philippines. IBM cannot force him to go in such circumstances, so management asked if I'd be willing to go. (That's called "risk shopping," I guess.) I said, "Sure, but let me check something first." I found out that this colleague lives in Miami. Using the power of Google, I found the crime and population statistics for metropolitan Miami and Manila. Then I phoned my manager back and said, "You might want to explain that he should pack up immediately and bring his entire family as soon as possible, permanently, to live in Manila. Miami's murder rate is three times higher."

He took the trip.