Singapore Permanent Residence (PR) Statistics: 2007-2017

Updated December 21, 2018. What are the odds of approval if you apply for Singapore Permanent Residence (PR)? "It depends." This post attempts to characterize the statistical realities of applying for PR.

Singapore's Immigration and Checkpoints Authority (ICA) handles PR applications, consistent with government policy goals. Unfortunately, detailed PR statistics are not publicly available. However, the government publishes some summary statistics in its annual Population in Brief publication, usually released in late September every year.

One important statistical series is the number of new PRs granted each calendar year. Here they are from "Population in Brief":

Year	PRs Granted
2007	63,627
2008	79,167
2009	59,460
2010	29,265
2011	27,521
2012	29,891
2013	29,869
2014	29,854
2015	29,955
2016	31,050
2017	31,849

As you can see, since 2010 (and probably starting in late 2009) the government set an absolute cap on the number of new PRs at 30,000 annually. Then there was a slight uptick from 2016.

Within each year's total PR number there are PRs granted through family ties (for example, to some of the foreign spouses of citizens and PRs), the Professionals/Technical Personnel and Skilled Workers (PTS) Scheme, and the Global Investor Programme (GIP). The government also invites international students to apply for PR, and, from 2008 to 2017, 7,251 applied and 5,932 were approved. Otherwise, we only know the aggregate annual PR numbers, not the numbers of PRs granted under each of these paths. We also don't exactly know how many PR applications ICA receives. However, the government has explained that it's becoming increasingly common for citizens to marry foreigners. Also, some years ago the government ended two other paths to Permanent Residence: the Landed Permanent Residence (LPR) and Financial Investor Schemes (FIS). The Ministry of Manpower also made it more difficult to qualify for the Personalised Employment Pass (PEP) and shortened its term from 5 years to 3 years. At the margins these PEP adjustments probably make it a bit harder to qualify for PR via the PTS Scheme. In short, it's reasonable to conclude that it keeps getting statistically more difficult, at least for those without family ties, to obtain Permanent Residence in Singapore. This trend is likely to continue given the government's overall population goals.

The total PR population is relatively stable in absolute numbers, at about 522,300 (June, 2018). As we've seen above, the PR inflow is about 31,000 per year. The PR outflow consists of PRs who become citizens (at a bit over 22,000 per year), who die, and who terminate or lose Permanent Residence. (A PR automatically loses his/her status if the PR's Re-Entry Permit expires while the PR is physically outside Singapore.)

The government strives to maintain relatively stable percentages of ethnic Chinese, Malay, Indian, and "Other" cohorts. In the government's view, ethnic compositional stability is fair, appropriate, and desirable. (That's not my view, as it happens.) To the extent birth and immigration rates diverge across these ethnic cohorts, so too will PR decisions.

While you cannot change your race, ethnicity, gender, parents, eye color, sexual orientation, or any other immutable human characteristic, you should be able to read and to follow ICA's PR application instructions. I recommend applying some common sense to the process. As a notable example, if you're applying under the PTS Scheme, ICA wants at least 6 monthly payslips and 3 Notices of Assessment (income tax notices from IRAS). You can apply for PR before you have what ICA requests, but in my view (unless you've won a Nobel Prize, as one of only a few exceptions), you're being quite foolish. Be patient, and good luck.

Nokia Phones Resurrected, Badly

I'm glad that HMD Global is resurrecting Nokia branded mobile phones. However, I'm disappointed in the "new" 2017 edition of the Nokia 3310. It's still a traditional GSM (2G/2.5G) phone. That's a problem. Around the world, carriers are progressively shutting down their older GSM networks or already have. Some countries, such as Japan and Korea, never adopted GSM. Singapore will shut down all its GSM networks within a couple months. AT&T has shut down its GSM network in the United States, leaving only T-Mobile with a "skeleton" 1900 MHz GSM network that has significant coverage limitations. Australia's last 2G/2.5G networks will shut down later this year.

In Europe it's possible that mobile carriers will shut down their 3G networks before they shut down their "skeleton" 2G/2.5G networks, but 3G phones can also connect to 2G/2.5G networks.

Nokia had many 3G feature phones, both before and during Microsoft's brief, disastrous stewardship of the brand. In fact, Nokia's 3G phones date all the way back to 2002. Nokia offered a truly global 3G phone as early as 2004.

There is still a market for feature phones, but they really need to function as phones. A 2G/2.5G feature phone in 2017 just isn't even a phone, sorry to say. I'd like to see HMD Global introduce (or reintroduce) a genuinely global 3G feature phone. There are a few directions HMD Global could choose. One approach would be to reintroduce something very much like the Nokia X3-02 but with one major improvement: a capacitive touchscreen. The X3-02 was the smallest 3G feature phone Nokia ever made (and probably the smallest anyone ever made), a miniature marvel. Its resistive touchscreen was troublesome, however. The Nokia 302 of similar vintage had no touchscreen at all, so another possibility is to update the X3-02 to make do without one. Yet another option is to reintroduce the Nokia 311 (or something very much like it) with a long-term supported and security patched Android software base. I think there's a market for a truly tiny, well supported Android-based phone, and the Nokia 311 form factor with modest, battery efficient internals would occupy that niche well.

One problem HMD Global seems to have is that, to date, there haven't been any MediaTek S30+ phones that support 3G. Maybe the S30+ software platform simply cannot support 3G yet, unlike Nokia's prior but more capable S40 platform that supported both 3G and Wi-Fi. And maybe HMD Global doesn't have rights to the S40 platform. Whatever the reasons, HMD Global still has some work to do to recover at least a part of Nokia's past glory. Nostalgia is terrific in certain ways, but the "new" Nokia 3310 is only bad nostalgia.