Economists are now forecasting that Japanese real GDP contracted by an astounding 12 percent in the 4th quarter of 2008, year to year. The government will report the GDP number on Monday.
UPDATE: It's bad. Very, very bad: -12.7% annual rate in Japan's 4Q2008. Nouriel Roubini tallies the global economic collapse: -3.8% for the U.S., -6% for the Eurozone, -8% for Germany, -16% for Singapore, and -20% for South Korea.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Saturday, February 07, 2009
Japan's Economic Woes
Like much of the rest of the world, Japan is experiencing serious economic problems. Toyota, NEC, Hitachi, Panasonic, Sony, Mizuho Financial Group, and Honda are among the firms reporting record losses and/or (usually and) laying off thousands of workers. Japan's export-driven economy is struggling against both weak demand (at home and abroad) and a particularly strong yen.
These economic challenges certainly make working in Japan even more interesting. Our customers have always looked to reduce costs, but now there seems to be some more serious thinking about how they can improve operational efficiencies. Previously "unthinkable" structural changes are now more likely. More assumptions are questioned and rethought.
Companies are appreciating at least one unique attribute of IBM mainframes: they typically become less expensive if your business declines. That's due to something called Variable Workload License Charge (VWLC). If your transaction and batch volumes decline, you pay a lower software charge, automatically. Nothing else in IT behaves that way, so the mainframe becomes even more valuable in this environment. For this reason and several others, in both bad times and good times it's a good time to have at least one IBM mainframe.
These economic challenges certainly make working in Japan even more interesting. Our customers have always looked to reduce costs, but now there seems to be some more serious thinking about how they can improve operational efficiencies. Previously "unthinkable" structural changes are now more likely. More assumptions are questioned and rethought.
Companies are appreciating at least one unique attribute of IBM mainframes: they typically become less expensive if your business declines. That's due to something called Variable Workload License Charge (VWLC). If your transaction and batch volumes decline, you pay a lower software charge, automatically. Nothing else in IT behaves that way, so the mainframe becomes even more valuable in this environment. For this reason and several others, in both bad times and good times it's a good time to have at least one IBM mainframe.
Monday, February 02, 2009
Praise for the MacBook
After using Apple's "unibody" MacBook (what MacRumors.com calls "Revision F") for a little over a month, I'm ready to say it's a fine piece of engineering and one of the best machines I've ever owned.
It's not perfect. Apple chose a slightly mediocre LCD screen, but at least it's LED-backlit. It'd be real nice to have an ExpressCard/34 slot, which is missing. (That'd help cope with the lack of Firewire, wide area wireless, and memory card slot.) I cannot get LEAP wireless to work consistently, and I have to reboot to switch between wireless and wired ethernet for some reason, so I'm still trying to figure out Mac OS X's networking. Also, the MacBooks are a bit overpriced, especially the 2.4 GHz model. (I don't really understand why anybody would buy the 2.4 GHz model. The 2.0 GHz model is a much better value, particularly if you can shop around and get at least some small discounts and/or rebates.)
All that said, the aluminum MacBook seems to be a rugged and reliable machine. It runs cool to the touch (Apple chose some good CPUs), the touchpad works very well (once you get used to it), the weight is reasonable (4.5 lbs.), performance is good (including graphics performance), the keyboard is nice, battery life seems quite reasonable, and it "just works."
It's not perfect. Apple chose a slightly mediocre LCD screen, but at least it's LED-backlit. It'd be real nice to have an ExpressCard/34 slot, which is missing. (That'd help cope with the lack of Firewire, wide area wireless, and memory card slot.) I cannot get LEAP wireless to work consistently, and I have to reboot to switch between wireless and wired ethernet for some reason, so I'm still trying to figure out Mac OS X's networking. Also, the MacBooks are a bit overpriced, especially the 2.4 GHz model. (I don't really understand why anybody would buy the 2.4 GHz model. The 2.0 GHz model is a much better value, particularly if you can shop around and get at least some small discounts and/or rebates.)
All that said, the aluminum MacBook seems to be a rugged and reliable machine. It runs cool to the touch (Apple chose some good CPUs), the touchpad works very well (once you get used to it), the weight is reasonable (4.5 lbs.), performance is good (including graphics performance), the keyboard is nice, battery life seems quite reasonable, and it "just works."
Monday, January 26, 2009
Infrastructure Now
Rachel Maddow and Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Oregon) are exactly right.
The U.S. government really needs to put its foot down on the public capital investment gas pedal right now. And specifically that means repairing existing infrastructure, not building new roads and bridges which only promote more oil consumption. Rail is the area that needs the biggest investment, including especially real high-speed rail. Let's start with a transcontinental line from New York to Los Angeles via Chicago, Denver, and Las Vegas, also building out the Los Angeles to San Francisco line that California voters approved. And let's sketch out an initial national network map for high-speed rail, to start thinking about the second phase.
Municipal water and sewer systems need urgent investment, to eliminate leaks and improve sanitation. Superfund sites should get cleaned up more quickly and completely. Airports, particularly small airports, need help to repair decaying runways and upgrade safety systems. And there should also be an integrated national plan to preserve existing airports and build a few new ones in areas of clear geographic need. For example, Chicago needs a new urban reliever airport closer to downtown. Cities need sensibly targeted urban renewal funds, to expand green space and support high density, mass transit-friendly redevelopment. Pollution control is desperately needed, especially for coal-fired plants and industries. Utility grids need more investment, especially if they will need to support new electric vehicles. Public utilities need funds to build new nuclear plants and other non-greenhouse gas energy plants. (Yes, I said nuclear.) Wetlands preservation and restoration is vital to restoring ecosystems and protecting against flooding. And, with all of this (and more), why not throw a few dollars toward artists who can help make this infrastructure more beautiful?
The U.S. need jobs, both in the short term and in the long term. There's no better policy prescription than for the federal government to spend aggressively in these and similar areas. Let's hope sanity prevails in Washington. Otherwise, the recession will be deeper and longer than necessary.
UPDATE #1: Just to give you some idea of what should be possible with real high-speed rail, a pure, dedicated ~300 Km/h dual track line (with some intermediate station sidings, such as Cleveland, Des Moines, Omaha, etc.) should be able to provide New York to Chicago nonstop express service in 4 hours, Chicago to Denver in 5, Denver to Las Vegas in 3.5, and Las Vegas to Los Angeles in well under 90 minutes. (Those would be your express stops on the fastest through trains, adding Omaha when phase 2 gets built.) For those of you who say that coast-to-coast doesn't make sense, keep in mind that coast-to-coast is the most efficient because it provides the most possible city pairs addressing the needs of the maximum number of travelers. It's much like how Southwest Airlines runs its planes. Also, in many places the high-speed rail station should be co-located with major airports or at least co-located with direct mass transit connections to those airports.
UPDATE #2: A "phase 2" high speed rail line might trace the other diagonal across the country, from Miami to Seattle, probably via cities such as Orlando, Atlanta, Nashville, St. Louis, Omaha (for interchange with the first line), and Portland. (There aren't a whole lot of cities on the great circle between Omaha and Portland, though.) After that there would be obvious built-out options, such as from San Francisco to Portland and an extension from Seattle to Vancouver. But that core "X" pattern probably yields the highest value and the most national of networks as quickly as possible. It makes possible and reasonable trips like Seattle to Cleveland, Miami to Denver, Las Vegas to Atlanta, etc.
The U.S. government really needs to put its foot down on the public capital investment gas pedal right now. And specifically that means repairing existing infrastructure, not building new roads and bridges which only promote more oil consumption. Rail is the area that needs the biggest investment, including especially real high-speed rail. Let's start with a transcontinental line from New York to Los Angeles via Chicago, Denver, and Las Vegas, also building out the Los Angeles to San Francisco line that California voters approved. And let's sketch out an initial national network map for high-speed rail, to start thinking about the second phase.
Municipal water and sewer systems need urgent investment, to eliminate leaks and improve sanitation. Superfund sites should get cleaned up more quickly and completely. Airports, particularly small airports, need help to repair decaying runways and upgrade safety systems. And there should also be an integrated national plan to preserve existing airports and build a few new ones in areas of clear geographic need. For example, Chicago needs a new urban reliever airport closer to downtown. Cities need sensibly targeted urban renewal funds, to expand green space and support high density, mass transit-friendly redevelopment. Pollution control is desperately needed, especially for coal-fired plants and industries. Utility grids need more investment, especially if they will need to support new electric vehicles. Public utilities need funds to build new nuclear plants and other non-greenhouse gas energy plants. (Yes, I said nuclear.) Wetlands preservation and restoration is vital to restoring ecosystems and protecting against flooding. And, with all of this (and more), why not throw a few dollars toward artists who can help make this infrastructure more beautiful?
The U.S. need jobs, both in the short term and in the long term. There's no better policy prescription than for the federal government to spend aggressively in these and similar areas. Let's hope sanity prevails in Washington. Otherwise, the recession will be deeper and longer than necessary.
UPDATE #1: Just to give you some idea of what should be possible with real high-speed rail, a pure, dedicated ~300 Km/h dual track line (with some intermediate station sidings, such as Cleveland, Des Moines, Omaha, etc.) should be able to provide New York to Chicago nonstop express service in 4 hours, Chicago to Denver in 5, Denver to Las Vegas in 3.5, and Las Vegas to Los Angeles in well under 90 minutes. (Those would be your express stops on the fastest through trains, adding Omaha when phase 2 gets built.) For those of you who say that coast-to-coast doesn't make sense, keep in mind that coast-to-coast is the most efficient because it provides the most possible city pairs addressing the needs of the maximum number of travelers. It's much like how Southwest Airlines runs its planes. Also, in many places the high-speed rail station should be co-located with major airports or at least co-located with direct mass transit connections to those airports.
UPDATE #2: A "phase 2" high speed rail line might trace the other diagonal across the country, from Miami to Seattle, probably via cities such as Orlando, Atlanta, Nashville, St. Louis, Omaha (for interchange with the first line), and Portland. (There aren't a whole lot of cities on the great circle between Omaha and Portland, though.) After that there would be obvious built-out options, such as from San Francisco to Portland and an extension from Seattle to Vancouver. But that core "X" pattern probably yields the highest value and the most national of networks as quickly as possible. It makes possible and reasonable trips like Seattle to Cleveland, Miami to Denver, Las Vegas to Atlanta, etc.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Citizenship
Last month the Italian government recognized my mother as an Italian citizen. Which means, as an adult, I now have a year to file an Italian citizenship application of my own if I choose.
It's a fascinating story, and at some point I'll relate more details.
It's a fascinating story, and at some point I'll relate more details.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
American Meat
The "U.S. Meat Export Federation" has some heavy advertising positioned aboard Tokyo's subways trying to reassure Japanese consumers about the safety of U.S. meat products, particularly beef. Many Japanese have shunned U.S. beef, fearing Mad Cow contamination. Ubiquitous rice bowl chain Yoshinoya has bravely started serving U.S. beef in some of their menu items. There is at least one major advantage: it's cheaper.
You can visit www.americanmeat.jp to learn more (in Japanese).
The Japanese government insists on testing and certifying U.S. beef in comprehensive ways that U.S. consumers don't enjoy. In fact, the U.S. Department of Agriculture sued one beef producer, Creekstone Farms, to stop its testing of 100% of its beef for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Consumer advocates (and plenty of U.S. consumers) are outraged, of course, that USDA (i.e. the U.S. government) would interfere with a free enterprise that is trying to improve and promote higher product quality and safety.
You can visit www.americanmeat.jp to learn more (in Japanese).
The Japanese government insists on testing and certifying U.S. beef in comprehensive ways that U.S. consumers don't enjoy. In fact, the U.S. Department of Agriculture sued one beef producer, Creekstone Farms, to stop its testing of 100% of its beef for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Consumer advocates (and plenty of U.S. consumers) are outraged, of course, that USDA (i.e. the U.S. government) would interfere with a free enterprise that is trying to improve and promote higher product quality and safety.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Spread a Little Happiness
Keith is spot on. This issue is simple and pure: do we want more of our fellow Americans to have just a little more chance at happiness? Yes, absolutely, yes.
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Friday, November 07, 2008
Most Maddening Election Day Result
As Andrew Sullivan astutely points out, California voters passed Proposition 2 which assures minimal humane treatment for in-state pigs, chickens, and other farm animals. (Animals slaughtered out-of-state arriving in California as meat are on their own.) At the same time, voters passed Proposition 8 to ban same-sex marriage.
In other words, it's OK for pigs to be a little happier, but we better not let gays and lesbians, our fellow humans, enjoy happiness.
I'm sorry, but I just do not understand this "thinking." While it's not everybody who voted for Proposition 8 — a lot of voters were simply misinformed — some people actually derive pleasure in seeing others denied happiness. How sad.
The good news is that, while gays and lesbians will have to wait a little longer, and some won't see the day, the day is coming when they won't be denied their right to the pursuit of happiness. The bigots are dying, basically, and younger people are progressively less discriminatory. On the very same day when California took one step back, the entire country took a giant leap forward and busted through another barrier of bigotry. I am forever optimistic that a similar day will come soon for gays and lesbians, too.
In the meantime, Connecticut, the state where I was born, heartily welcomes all gays and lesbians from anywhere in the country who want to tie the knot, whether they want to remain in the state as residents or not. But why not stay in Connecticut? It's a wonderful place to live, and you can vote Joe Lieberman out of office in 2012 if he doesn't have the good sense to retire. And why not move your business to Connecticut, or at least open a big office and hire lots of talented and energetic Connecticut workers, including workers who happen to be gay or lesbian?
Contraception is also now legal in Connecticut, so what's not to like? Connecticut welcomes you, no matter who you love.
In other words, it's OK for pigs to be a little happier, but we better not let gays and lesbians, our fellow humans, enjoy happiness.
I'm sorry, but I just do not understand this "thinking." While it's not everybody who voted for Proposition 8 — a lot of voters were simply misinformed — some people actually derive pleasure in seeing others denied happiness. How sad.
The good news is that, while gays and lesbians will have to wait a little longer, and some won't see the day, the day is coming when they won't be denied their right to the pursuit of happiness. The bigots are dying, basically, and younger people are progressively less discriminatory. On the very same day when California took one step back, the entire country took a giant leap forward and busted through another barrier of bigotry. I am forever optimistic that a similar day will come soon for gays and lesbians, too.
In the meantime, Connecticut, the state where I was born, heartily welcomes all gays and lesbians from anywhere in the country who want to tie the knot, whether they want to remain in the state as residents or not. But why not stay in Connecticut? It's a wonderful place to live, and you can vote Joe Lieberman out of office in 2012 if he doesn't have the good sense to retire. And why not move your business to Connecticut, or at least open a big office and hire lots of talented and energetic Connecticut workers, including workers who happen to be gay or lesbian?
Contraception is also now legal in Connecticut, so what's not to like? Connecticut welcomes you, no matter who you love.
Monday, October 27, 2008
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